Target Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Michael Fiddelke Say?

Target Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Michael Fiddelke Say?

Daragh Thomas

Tue, August 18, 2026 at 11:35 PM GMT+3 3 min read

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Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT) reports second-quarter earnings before the bell Wednesday, with the call at 8 a.m. ET.

Polymarket traders put a 90% chance on Target clearing $2.28 in adjusted earnings per share, but the more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which words CEO Michael Fiddelke and his team will say.

Analysts expect earnings of about $2.31 per share, up from $2.05 in the year-ago period, on revenue of roughly $26.15 billion, following double-digit beats in each of the past two quarters.

The stock is up more than 50% this year.

What Kalshi Predicts Target Will Say

"Beauty" leads the board at 98%. Target's partnership with Ulta Beauty Inc. (NASDAQ:ULTA) concludes this month, and the replacement, a new Beauty Studio format with more than 80 prestige and emerging brands, launches this fall.

"Target Plus" trades at 97%. Target groups the third-party marketplace with Roundel, its advertising business, and Circle 360, its paid delivery membership, as non-merchandise businesses. Sales from those businesses jumped nearly 25% last quarter.

"Back to School" sits at 90%. The season is an important test of Target's improving customer traffic, with Jefferies recently lifting its price target to $177 after seeing stronger trends in July.

"Tariff" trades at 79%. Executives have called price increases a last resort, but analysts may drag the word out of them regardless.

"Nintendo Switch" is at 70%. Chief Commercial Officer Rick Gomez credited the console for hardlines growth on this call a year ago, and a $50 price increase lands Sept. 1.

"Revenue" trades at just 70%, perhaps a quirk of a company that prefers to talk in "sales."

"Inflation" trades at 61%. Tariffs are pushing up costs across retail, and though Target executives have tended to frame the issue around "value" and pricing, traders lean toward the word slipping out anyway.

What Kalshi Predicts Target Will Skip

"Synthetic Color" trades near 40%. Target pulled synthetic dyes from every cereal it sells as of May, one of the first such moves by a national retailer, yet traders are split on whether the phrase makes the script.

"Competition" sits at 20%. Fiddelke may prefer "market share" to naming Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT).

"Autonomous / Automation" is at 9%. Target uses AI and automation across inventory and its supply chain, but unlike Walmart and Amazon, automation has yet to become a central part of its investor story.

Reading the Board

The beat is priced in; the reaction is not. Options traders are pricing in a move of about 7% in either direction, according to TradingKey.

Investors will be watching comparable sales, expected to rise 2% to 3% after the first quarter's 5.6% jump, and whether Fiddelke raises a full-year forecast he already lifted once in May.

The average analyst price target sits near $143, below the stock.

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This article Target Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Michael Fiddelke Say? originally appeared on Benzinga.com

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