Sabah Teklifi: Perakende riski

Morning Bid: Retail risk

By Mike Dolan

Mon, August 17, 2026 at 1:35 PM GMT+3 3 min read

By Mike Dolan

Aug 17 (Reuters) -

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets

A relatively quiet week ahead kicks off today in the shadow of the first drop in U.S. ‌retail sales in nine months last Friday, teeing up second-quarter results from Home Depot, Target and Walmart later ‌in the week, another gauge of U.S. consumer spending.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid ​daily podcast, where we discuss the retail sales miss and more.

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RETAIL RISK

The drop in July sales was exaggerated by a retreat in oil prices – since reversed – and there was a quirk from Amazon bringing its "Prime Day" discount day forward to June this year.

But the reading chimes with a drop ‌in consumer confidence in the University of ⁠Michigan's latest survey and has combined with last week's subdued inflation reports to rein in Federal Reserve rate hike expectations for September.

The reheating of oil prices in recent weeks amid the Iran ⁠war standoff might shift some of that picture before the Fed meets next month, but the rate relief for now has been enough to keep Wall Street stock indexes pushing to record highs.

With no breakthrough on the Iran impasse over the weekend, President Donald Trump ​told ​Americans that slightly more expensive gas was a price worth paying ​for seeing the conflict out.

As to the Fed story, ‌we're due to get minutes of July's split policy meeting on Wednesday, and an industrial production number tomorrow.

Elsewhere, Japan's 10-year government borrowing rates hit a three-decade high on Monday, even as Japanese GDP came in well below forecasts with an annualized rise of 1.1% in the second quarter.

While sputtering growth, due in part to energy prices, may complicate Bank of Japan rate rise plans, the yen held firm on Monday as a broadly weaker dollar dominated on the Fed view.

Chart of the ‌day

China's economy lost momentum at the start of the second half, with ​industrial output and retail sales slowing as extreme weather disruptions and persistently ​weak domestic demand renew pressure on policymakers to step ​up stimulus.

Getting China's roughly 1.4-billion-strong population spending again will not be easy while the country's property ‌sector remains in a slump, with new home ​prices in July down 3.2% from ​a year earlier and 0.1% from June.

Today's events to watch

• New York Fed manufacturing survey for August (8:30 a.m. EDT)

• Canada July CPI (8:30 a.m. EDT)

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Opinions expressed are those of ​the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is ​committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

(By Mike Dolan)