Ray Dalio, yapay zeka ile bir balonun "klasik işaretlerini" görüyor ve borsanın 1929 ya da 2000 'e doğru yükseliş gibi göründüğünü söylüyor

Ray Dalio sees the ‘classic signs’ of a bubble with AI, says the stock market looks like the run-up to 1929 or 2000

Aditi Ganguly

Fri, August 14, 2026 at 1:35 PM GMT+3 12 min read

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For the last several months, Ray Dalio hasn't been shy with sharing his concerns about a potential AI bubble and he doesn't seem to be softening his stance (1).

During a recent appearance on Steven Bartlett's The Diary of a CEO podcast, Dalio, the founder of investment management firm Bridgewater Associates, said he believes enthusiasm around AI has pushed markets into a bubble territory that looks a lot like the run-ups to the historic market crashes of 1929 and 2000 (2).

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This renewed warning comes after SpaceX went public on June 12 with the largest initial public offering in history (3), while both Open AI (4) and Anthropic (5) prepare to launch IPOs that are expected to push those companies into trillion-dollar valuations. As Fortune (6) notes, this is the type of "speculative issuance surge" that financial experts and market historians believe is the clearest warning sign of a bubble.

The podcast opened with a discussion of Jeremy Grantham, the founder of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Company (GMO), who previously told the show that we're looking at "the biggest investment bubble in American history," Dalio agreed.

"He's right," Dalio said.

The "Four Horsemen of the Bubble Apocalypse"

Owen Lamont, senior vice president and portfolio manager for Acadian Asset Management, created a financial bubble checklist that he's called the "Four Horsemen of the Bubble Apocalypse" (7). This checklist notes the things that will likely happen when a bubble is about to pop:

Overvaluation: Current prices are at very high levels, according to expert opinions and historical norms.
Bubble beliefs: A large number of market experts say prices are too high and will likely rise even higher.
Equity issuance: A high level of equity issuance from new firms (IPOs) and existing firms over the last year, accompanied by lower levels of repurchases.
Inflows: An unusually high number of new investors entering the stock market.

The overvaluation horseman seems to have already come to fruition. According to Advisor Perspectives, the S&P 500 is currently overvalued by 116% to 207% based on monthly data for June 2026 (8) and Cerity Partners reports that data suggests the market is overvalued at this time (9).

Meanwhile, financial experts such as Grantham, Michael Burry and Torsten Sløk have all spoken about their AI bubble beliefs, sharing Dalio's concerns. There's also a general consensus to consider: According to The Globe and Mail, the Bank of America's Global recent fund managers survey found that managers believe an AI bubble is "the most pressing tail risk facing the market right now" (10).

While speaking with Bartlett on the podcast, Dalio mentioned surging stock issuances as one of two primary factors that — along with rising interest rates — can "prick" a bubble (11). And this particular horseman is already in the books after SpaceX went public with a massive valuation and has traded below its IPO price ever since.

Meanwhile, Anthropic's upcoming IPO is targeting a near-trillion-dollar valuation (12), while some analysts believe OpenAI's IPO could set the company's valuation at more than a trillion dollars (13).

The fourth horseman, inflows, also appears to have come to fruition. In 2025, retail investors — non-professional individuals who buy or sell stocks, bonds or funds — accounted for $5.4 trillion of trading activity, according to independent data firm Vanda (14). That's close to a 47% increase from 2024, Forbes reports.

Dalio sees the "classic signs" of a bubble

During the podcast, Bartlett walked Dalio through a hypothetical situation that explains how an AI bubble might pop, as well as the difference between wealth and money.

Let's say an investor buys one stock in an AI company that's valued at $100, giving the investor a net worth of $100. That investor then goes to the bank and takes out a $50 loan. Then the market takes a turn for the worse and other investors who bought the same stock start to sell, driving a single share down to $25 — while our investor's $50 loan still needs to be repaid.

"But now this thing that I have that was worth $100 a couple of months ago is now worth $25 and I'm $25 in a hole," Bartlett explained. "So I have to quickly sell. And then with everybody selling all the prices of assets dropped. People stop spending money at the restaurants. Like you [Dalio] say, there's less money around and then the bubble has burst and we're in this sort of declining [trajectory]."

Dalio's quick response? "You got it!"

"What's quite common now is you can issue stock for, let's say you raise $50 million and you value the company at a billion dollars. Only $50 million was actually spent on that company, but now if you raise that, you're a billionaire," he added.

"Because [of] the accounting value of that, what do you own? You own stock that is valued at a billion dollars. Nobody paid a billion dollars or whatever it is, right? And now you own that stock, but that stock … you can't spend because you can't spend wealth."

This led Dalio to mention an important distinction between money and wealth.

"Wealth is not the same as money," he said. "You see a lot of people getting wealthy but you can't spend the wealth. You have to sell the wealth to get money because you can only spend money."

Asked again whether he is seeing the signs of a potential bubble, Dalio doubled down.

"Yeah, the classic signs."

Tried and true assets that protect wealth

Those signs of an AI bubble aren't the only thing investors have to worry about.

Inflation came in at 3.4% in July, still well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target (15). Meanwhile, prolonged tensions in the Middle East and another energy shock as the war between Iran and the U.S. heats up have added another layer of uncertainty.

That combination can make a portfolio heavily concentrated in stocks — particularly expensive growth and technology names — more vulnerable if sentiment shifts. Adding assets that don't necessarily move in lockstep with equities could give investors another line of defense.

The case for gold

One traditional way to diversify away from stocks is by adding defensive assets like gold to your portfolio. The precious metal has been used as a store of value for thousands of years.

Gold also isn't tied to a single country or currency and governments can't simply create more of it in the same way they can print fiat money. That's why investors often turn to the metal when inflation, geopolitical turmoil, or broader economic uncertainty starts to rise.

Gold prices have more than doubled over the past five years, hitting multiple record highs along the way and outperforming the S&P 500 over the same period.

Dalio believes investors should consider allocating part of their portfolios to the metal.

"One should have between five and 15% of their portfolio in gold because of the fact of how it works with the other components," Dalio advised (16).

One way to invest in gold that also provides significant tax advantages is to open a gold IRA with the help of Priority Gold.

This way, you can hold physical gold or gold-related assets within a retirement account, which combines the tax advantages of an IRA with the protective benefits of investing in gold.

If you opt for Priority Gold's platinum package, you can get free account setup and insured shipping and storage for up to five years. Plus, you can also rollover your existing IRA or 401(k) into a precious metals IRA with Priority Gold — tax and penalty free.

And when you make a qualifying purchase with Priority Gold, you can receive up to $10,000 in precious metals for free. Just keep in mind that gold is often best used as one part of a well-diversified portfolio.

Add real estate to the mix

Gold isn't the only asset you can consider if you're looking for something beyond the stock market. Real estate can also provide a way to diversify a portfolio while offering some potential protection against inflation.

Unlike stocks, which can swing sharply based on earnings expectations, investor sentiment, or the latest market headline, property values and rental income are tied to factors such as housing demand, supply and local economic conditions.

In fact, private real estate has historically been a steadier performer than U.S. stocks. Over the past 30 years, private real estate delivered positive returns across every rolling 10-year period, unlike U.S. equities (17).

The catch? Buying a rental property outright can require a hefty down payment, a mortgage and plenty of hands-on work.

That's where fractional investing can come in. Mogul lets you invest in shares of single-family rental homes across the country.

Founded by former Goldman Sachs real estate investors, their team of experts handpicks the top 1% of single-family rental homes nationwide for you. This way, you can invest in institutional-quality offerings for a fraction of the usual cost — while receiving monthly rental income, real-time appreciation and tax benefits.

The team at mogul carefully vets each property, requiring a minimum 12% return even in downside scenarios. Across the board, the platform features an average yearly return of 18.8%. Their cash-on-cash yields, meanwhile, average between 10% to 12% annually. With investments typically ranging between $15,000 and $40,000 per property, offerings often sell out in under three hours.

Getting started is a quick and easy process. You can sign up for an account and then browse available properties. Once you verify your information with their team, you can invest like a mogul in just a few clicks.

Those with more capital on hand can expand beyond residential real estate.

Accredited investors can now tap into this opportunity through platforms such as Lightstone DIRECT, which gives accredited investors access to single-asset multifamily and industrial deals.

Lightstone DIRECT's direct-to-investor model ensures a high degree of alignment between individual investors and a vertically-integrated, institutional owner-operator — a sophisticated and streamlined option for individual investors looking to diversify into private-market real estate.

With Lightstone DIRECT, accredited individuals can access the same multifamily and industrial assets Lightstone pursues with its own capital, with minimum investments starting at $100,000.

Find an expert for free

Of course, deciding how much to put into stocks, gold, or real estate isn't a one-size-fits-all calculation. The right portfolio for someone in their 20s can look very different from one designed for someone who expects to retire in the next few years.

Someone approaching retirement may have less time to recover from a major market decline, particularly if they need to sell investments to cover living expenses. A sharp downturn early in retirement can force investors to lock in losses and leave less money available to participate in a subsequent recovery.

A 25-year-old, on the other hand, could have decades to ride out market swings. That longer time horizon may make it easier to tolerate volatility and keep a larger portion of a portfolio in stocks.

That's why your portfolio should take more than a market forecast into account. Your retirement date, spending needs, taxes, income, risk tolerance and other financial goals all matter.

If all of those moving pieces feel overwhelming, a financial advisor can help build a portfolio around your individual circumstances. Research from Envestnet has found that people who work with financial advisors see 3% higher average returns than those who don't.

Platforms like Advisor.com connect you with a vetted FINRA/SEC-registered advisor near you for free.

Here's how it works: Simply enter a few details about your finances and goals and Advisor.com will comb through its roster and connect you with a qualified expert best-suited for your needs based on your unique financial goals and preferences.

The platform does the heavy lifting for you, vetting advisors based on track record, client ratios and regulatory background. Plus, their network comprises fiduciaries, who are legally required to act in your best interests.

Finding the right advisor isn't always easy — there's no one-size-fits-all solution. That's why Advisor.com lets you set up a free initial consultation, with no obligation to hire, to see if they're the right fit for you.

- With files from Chase Kell.