Walmart set for in-line Q2 as investors eye tariff refund plans, 2H guidance

Walmart set for in-line Q2 as investors eye tariff refund plans, 2H guidance

Fri, August 14, 2026 at 5:38 PM GMT+3 2 min read

• WMT -0.85%
• JEF -0.68%

Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT, XETRA:WMT) is expected to post largely in-line second-quarter results, with investor focus centered on second-half guidance, the treatment of potential tariff refunds, and how much of that money gets reinvested into pricing, according to a note from Jefferies.

Analysts at the firm said management has continued to emphasize a consistent strategy built around price leadership, including plans to funnel potential tariff refunds into lower prices to widen the retailer's price gaps against competitors and drive market share gains, particularly in consumables.

Jefferies said Walmart remains upbeat on private label growth and e-commerce, pointing to strong marketplace expansion, improving online profitability, and continued investment in automation and fulfillment as key drivers of long-term share gains and margin expansion. Management has acknowledged some volatility in consumer spending, especially among lower-income shoppers, but still expects solid earnings before interest and taxes growth, the note said.

Investor debate centers on the implied back-half guidance and how management characterizes the company's earnings power beyond an expected solid second-quarter print, Jefferies said. Other investor questions include how tariff refunds would flow through the income statement, how much would be reinvested into price, and whether management adjusts its full-year outlook.

Jefferies flagged a possible modest read-through from the roughly 100 basis point Cyclospora-related headwind expected at Grocery Outlet, noting both retailers have significant grocery exposure and could face similar produce-related demand pressures.

Foot traffic data tracked by Jefferies showed a slight deceleration on a three-month average basis in July, up 1.2% compared with 2.6% in April, though two-year stack trends were steadier at 0.6% versus 0.7%.

Jefferies left its estimates unchanged, forecasting US comparable sales growth of 3.6% and earnings per share of $0.74, broadly in line with consensus.

The firm said it believes investors are underappreciating Walmart's resilience across macroeconomic environments, along with earnings power building from improving e-commerce margins and advertising revenue, as well as the potential upside from future tariff refunds reinvested into price ahead of the back-to-school and holiday seasons.