Elon Musk Says SpaceX Will Generate $1 Trillion in Revenue by 2030. Time to Buy the Stock?

Elon Musk Says SpaceX Will Generate $1 Trillion in Revenue by 2030. Time to Buy the Stock?

Prosper Junior Bakiny, The Motley Fool

Fri, August 14, 2026 at 5:20 PM GMT+3 4 min read

• SPCX -3.58%
• NVDA +0.04%

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) posted its second-quarter financial results on Aug. 4. The company's performance was strong. Revenue soared 92% year over year to $7.8 billion, while it almost cut its net losses in half, from $1 billion in the year-ago period to $541 million this time around. However, perhaps management commentary was even more noteworthy. And one thing in particular that SpaceX's CEO, Elon Musk, said deserves investors' attention. Let's dig in.

Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »

An exciting medium-term guidance

During SpaceX's second-quarter earnings conference call, Elon Musk talked about internal revenue projections. He said the company now expects to reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, up from its previous 2031 target. So far this year, SpaceX has generated about $12.5 billion in revenue. Analysts expect an average of about $44.58 billion for the full fiscal year 2026.

From there, it would need a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 118% to reach $1 trillion in revenue in four years. That's not entirely unheard of. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) went public in May 1997 and reported net sales of $147.8 million that year. During its fiscal year 2001, it posted revenue of $3.1 billion, for a CAGR of roughly 114%. Still, that's not the norm, and it would be quite an impressive achievement for SpaceX.

Should you buy the stock?

Let's assume Musk is right and that by its fiscal year 2030, SpaceX will generate $1 trillion in revenue. Does that guarantee that the company will post excellent returns through then? Not at all. Revenue growth matters, but it's not the only thing that determines stock price appreciation. Valuation concerns and the inability to turn a profit are important as well. SpaceX may face questions on both fronts.

The company's price-to-sales ratio is about 64, substantially higher than the reasonably valued range, which typically starts below 2. This suggests that some of the company's success is already baked into its share price, and even robust revenue growth might not be enough to lift the stock significantly higher. Also, SpaceX isn't currently profitable. And although it improved on that front during the second quarter, the company is also aggressively investing in its artificial intelligence (AI)-related ambitions.

That could prevent the company from turning a profit. Even so, for a company in the growth stage, revenue growth is often the most important determinant of stock market performance. The market tends to forgive red ink on the bottom line if the top-line is growing fast enough.

So, if Musk is right, there is an excellent chance that SpaceX will crush the market through 2030. But what if he's not? We know that Musk tends to set aggressive timelines that often get delayed. So, we shouldn't take his projection at face value. So, what's the verdict? There is significant uncertainty around the stock, and it could drop sharply if it runs into headwinds, given its valuation. SpaceX is too risky and too expensive at current levels. Investors should wait for a significant dip before buying its shares.

Should you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies right now?

Before you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Space Exploration Technologies wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut are built for long-term growth and could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $421,943!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,382,819!*

That performance is why people listen. With a track record of beating the S&P 500 by nearly 5x, Stock Advisor offers a distinct advantage. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built for the long haul.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of August 14, 2026.

Prosper Junior Bakiny has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Elon Musk Says SpaceX Will Generate $1 Trillion in Revenue by 2030. Time to Buy the Stock? was originally published by The Motley Fool