SpaceX Has Slumped Since Its Debut. Here Is Where History Says the Stock Heads Next.

SpaceX Has Slumped Since Its Debut. Here Is Where History Says the Stock Heads Next.

Leo Sun, The Motley Fool

Wed, August 12, 2026 at 9:30 PM GMT+3 3 min read

• SPCX -3.33%
• NVDA +0.54%

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), the aerospace and AI company founded by Elon Musk, went public at $135 per share on June 12. Its stock closed at a record high of $211.39 on June 16, but it now trades at about $140. Let's see why it slumped -- and where it might be headed.

Why did SpaceX's stock soar and sink?

A low float (it offered less than 5% of its shares) and market hype drove SpaceX's initial rally. But at its peak, SpaceX's market cap hit $2.64 trillion -- or 141 times the $18.7 billion in revenue it generated in 2025. Even though its revenue rose 33% in 2025, its sky-high valuation was unsustainable. As the euphoria from its IPO faded, investors fretted over its steep losses and aggressive spending plans -- and its stock crumbled under the weight of its lofty valuations.

Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »

SpaceX's hasty takeover of xAI (which houses Grok, X, and its other AI assets) right before its IPO also raised red flags. Before that acquisition, SpaceX generated a slim profit as Starlink's profits offset its launch service segment's losses. But after that acquisition, the losses from its AI and space divisions wiped out Starlink's profits. That pressure will intensify for the foreseeable future as SpaceX ramps up its AI-driven investments and acquisitions.

Musk claims SpaceX can generate more than $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, but its space, satellite, and AI businesses would need to grow much larger to hit that target. For now, analysts expect its revenue to grow to $155 billion by 2028. That's an impressive 5-year CAGR of 103% from 2025, but it would need much bigger catalysts to reach $1 trillion by 2030.

Where will SpaceX's stock head next?

With a market cap of $1.76 trillion, SpaceX trades at 39 times this year's sales. That price-to-sales ratio is still high, but it doesn't look as overheated as it did in mid-June.

However, SpaceX's valuation -- along with its upcoming lockup expirations through the end of the year -- should limit its near-term gains. Many other hot IPOs -- including Meta, Alibaba, and Snowflake -- faced similar pullbacks after their widely hyped market debuts.

While it might be tempting to buy SpaceX as it revisits its IPO price, it could sink even lower if the market crashes or the company fails to meet Wall Street's sky-high expectations. Therefore, the history of other hot IPOs suggests we shouldn't rush to buy SpaceX's stock right now.

Should you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies right now?

Before you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Space Exploration Technologies wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut are built for long-term growth and could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $403,337!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,334,946!*

That performance is why people listen. With a track record of beating the S&P 500 by 4x, Stock Advisor offers a distinct advantage. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built for the long haul.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of August 12, 2026.

Leo Sun has positions in Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms and Snowflake. The Motley Fool recommends Alibaba Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

SpaceX Has Slumped Since Its Debut. Here Is Where History Says the Stock Heads Next. was originally published by The Motley Fool