Lettuce prices fell a record 16.4% in July amid cyclospora outbreak

Lettuce prices fell a record 16.4% in July amid cyclospora outbreak

Thu, August 13, 2026 at 4:45 PM GMT+3 2 min read

.The lettuce price index fell 16.4% in July from June, the largest one-month decline on record for the category in the consumer price index, as a multistate cyclospora outbreak drove consumers away from the leafy green.

Within the CPI's food category, no item fell harder month-over-month in July than lettuce, a month in which overall food prices rose just 0.1%. Even after July's plunge, lettuce prices are still up 7.5% compared with a year earlier, outpacing the 3.4% rise in the broader CPI over the same stretch.

"It's very likely due to the cyclospora outbreak and consumers just not wanting to buy lettuce right now," Jeremy Horpedahl, an associate economics professor at the University of Central Arkansas, told CNBC. "Consumers are not going to rush out and buy this now just because it's cheaper. It's fallen because nobody wants it."

Federal health regulators identified a Taylor Farms processing facility in central Mexico as the likely source of the outbreak, tracing it to iceberg lettuce handled there. The company subsequently issued a voluntary recall of products from that plant. NielsenIQ data cited by CNBC showed prepackaged salad dollar sales fell 14% in the four weeks through July 25, measured against the same stretch a year earlier.

Consumer anxiety about the outbreak weighed on sales at multiple restaurant chains, regardless of whether those chains had any connection to the contaminated product. Chipotle said cyclospora created roughly a 2-percentage-point sales impact in the second half of July. Yum Brands CEO Chris Turner said the outbreak — which the FDA first connected to lettuce at Taco Bell — resulted in a "meaningful near-term sales impact," though Turner said sales had been improving.

The outbreak's effect on restaurant chains has been a recurring theme in recent weeks. Sweetgreen cut its full-year outlook after cyclospora fears weighed on demand, projecting same-store sales to shrink 7% to 8% in 2026, steeper than its prior forecast for a 2% to 4% decline. Cava reported that consumer anxiety about fresh produce weighed on sales near the end of its second quarter, though Chief Financial Officer Tricia Tolivar said same-restaurant sales had since rebounded to the mid single digits.

The July drop brought lettuce prices down from the record peaks they had reached earlier in the summer. Horpedahl drew a comparison to egg prices, which surged as bird flu reduced supply before falling sharply. "The consumer is just wanting to stay away from this product," he said.