Polymarket yatırımcıları bu ay Bitcoin'in piyasaya sürülme olasılığını çok az görüyor

Polymarket traders see little chance of a Bitcoin breakout this month

Fri, August 7, 2026 at 12:31 PM GMT+3 2 min read

• BTC-USD -0.01%
• POLA.PVT

Traders on Polymarket put the odds of bitcoin reaching $70,000 at any point this month at just 27%, while giving a 40% chance of a slide to $60,000.

The prediction market, which lets users bet on the outcome of real-world events, is running a series of contracts on the highest and lowest prices Bitcoin touches before the end of August.

Bitcoin was trading at $64,333, up 2.17%, with roughly $2.6 million wagered across the market.

A move to $65,000 is priced at 90%, reflecting how close the cryptocurrency already sits to that level.

Beyond that, conviction fades quickly. The probability of a touch at $67,500 stands at 53%, falling to 15% at $72,500 and 6% at $75,000.

A move to $85,000 is priced at 1%, and $100,000 at less than 1%.

The downside skew is more instructive.

Traders put a 71% probability on bitcoin dipping to $62,500, 20% on $57,500 and 11% on $55,000.

That distribution points to a market braced for another range-bound month rather than a recovery.

Bitcoin has fallen roughly half from its October 2025 peak above $126,000, with the decline accelerating through a June sell-off that took it to a 21-month low near $59,300.

Cumulative flows into US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds turned negative this year for the first time since the products launched in January 2024, draining about $7.2 billion from the complex in May and June alone.

Assets across those funds fell from about $104 billion to roughly $80 billion over the period.

Flows have since stabilised, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust taking in around $350 million in July.

The Federal Reserve has held its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, and some officials have declined to rule out a rise, removing the rate-cut trade that supported crypto through late 2025.

Citigroup has cut its 12-month bitcoin forecast to $82,000 from $112,000.

Jackson Hole, running from 27 to 29 August, is the month's obvious catalyst.