Diesel Prices Could Push More Capacity Out in Q4

Diesel Prices Could Push More Capacity Out in Q4

Wed, September 23, 2026 at 7:53 PM GMT+3 3 min read

Diesel prices could push more capacity out in Q4 — and that may be the real freight market story. RXO's Corey Klujsza breaks down why spot demand looks softer, why contract routing guides are shifting, and why carrier costs still leave the market vulnerable to higher rate volatility.This FreightWaves Today segment digs into consumer demand, food and bev seasonality, linehaul pressure and what rising fuel means for truckload capacity heading into peak season.

Spot linehaul rates are running more than 40% above year-ago levels, yet the average carrier's operating margin remains far below where it stood at the peak of the last upcycle — a gap that Corey Klujsza, VP of Pricing and Procurement at RXO, says could push more trucks out of the market heading into the fourth quarter. Rising diesel costs are simultaneously squeezing consumers and eroding carrier profitability, setting up a supply-side catalyst even if demand stays muted.

Klujsza told FreightWaves that the freight market started Q3 with spot rates "inching towards all-time highs" around the Fourth of July before cooling over the past several weeks. He attributed part of that softening to mini-bid activity that has re-rated contract lanes, pulling volume away from the spot market rather than reflecting a genuine demand collapse. Still, he acknowledged that underlying consumer demand is weakening, driven largely by elevated fuel and food prices.

"The linehaul yield for the average carrier in the market is really nowhere close to what it was in the past cycle. Now, all-in transportation spend is inching closer to all-time highs, but really, again, we're contributing and attributing a lot of that to the diesel cost."

On the demand side, Klujsza said an apparent uptick in goods consumption is misleading. He argued that much of the recent goods-spending data reflects surging energy costs rather than a true rebound in consumer purchases, cautioning that stripping out fuel leaves the underlying freight demand picture looking softer than headline numbers suggest. He added that Q4 peak season indicators currently point to a muted outcome similar to last year, when freight volumes didn't meaningfully accelerate until just before Thanksgiving.

One data point offering a sliver of optimism: the Cass Freight Shipment Index posted its first year-over-year positive print in roughly 40 to 42 months in August, going back to approximately January 2023. Klujsza said the print matters specifically because it measures volume falling to the for-hire market, which could indicate that shippers are being forced outside dedicated and private fleets — a development that would benefit brokers and spot carriers.

On contract rates, Klujsza said shippers that took on underpriced lanes in Q1 and Q2 are now being forced to reset those rates, narrowing the spot-to-contract premium. He expects full 2027 contract bids to reflect double-digit year-over-year increases, saying "single digits really won't cut it going into 2027, given the timing of the last procurement event." He added that the pace of spot rate acceleration seen from Q2 into Q3 is likely largely behind the market, but inflationary pressure will persist.

Shippers are also paring down their carrier and broker networks in response to heightened fraud and compliance risk, Klujsza said. Rather than expanding their routing guide "tail" to chase capacity as they typically would in a tightening market, many shippers are consolidating with partners that meet stricter vetting and compliance standards. "Chasing that compliance and chasing that service just isn't worth it right now," he said, citing the legal exposure created by recent court decisions affecting shipper liability.

• Spot linehaul rates are up more than 40% year over year, but carrier operating yields remain well below prior-cycle peaks, keeping capacity-exit pressure elevated.

• The Cass Freight Shipment Index posted its first year-over-year positive print in roughly 40 to 42 months in August, a potential signal of tightening for-hire demand.

• RXO expects double-digit contract rate increases in Q4 2027 bids, with the current spot-to-contract premium narrowing but spot still trading at a premium.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.

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