US Running Low on the 2 Weapons It Would Need Most

Trey Thoelcke

Wed, September 23, 2026 at 3:40 PM GMT+3 6 min read

Quick Read

The U.S. is critically short on air defense interceptors and long-range standoff missiles, the two weapons most needed in a hypothetical conflict with China.
RTX booked over $5 billion in Patriot effectors and $1.8 billion in AMRAAM in Q2, while sitting on a $289 billion backlog.
L3Harris controls the sole large-scale solid rocket motor supply for both THAAD and PAC-3, backed by a $12 billion seven-year framework agreement.
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President Trump used his UN General Assembly address to reference U.S. missiles and stockpiles. A defense analyst speaking on Bloomberg Businessweek called that a break with convention: "Can you imagine that happening a year ago? Usually you don't talk about military means at the UN General Assembly and you most certainly don't say whether you have sufficient stockpiles to wage war at the UN." The procurement documents tell a grounded version of the same story. The Pentagon's FY 2027 Program Acquisition Costs by Weapon System, dated April 21, 2026, funds a surge in interceptor and precision-munitions buys, and the primes named on those lines have the most to gain.

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The diagnosis: "The US is running low on two really important types: air defense interceptors and long-range standoff missiles, the most important ones that would be used in any future conflict." The stakes: "If you're China, I would be watching quite gleefully if I was in Beijing, because all of this says that the US would be less able to bring to bear the potential military power that it might need in a hypothetical future conflict with China."

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1. Leidos: Adjacent Exposure via Hypersonics and EW

Leidos (NYSE:LDOS) benefits through hypersonics and electronic warfare rather than interceptor tonnage. Recent awards include an $88 million MACH-TB 2.0 hypersonic glide vehicle OTA and a $350 million USAF Electronic Warfare Mission Support contract. Q2 FY2026 revenue was $4.56 billion, up 7.2%, with backlog of $48.71 billion. Shares are down 31.7% year to date.

2. Northrop Grumman: Rocket Motors and Battle Command

Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC) is involved in two ways. The company completed qualification activities to become a supplier on PAC-3. It also struck a $2 billion framework agreement with the Department of Defense and Lockheed Martin for solid rocket motors. Its IBCS command system was approved by the State Department for the sale of six IBCS systems to Kuwait, with letters of request from the UAE and Qatar. Q2 revenue reached $10.876 billion, up 5.1%, on record backlog of $104.69 billion. Ten multi-year missile-acceleration agreements represent up to $10 billion of sales opportunity over the next seven years.

3. Lockheed Martin: The Named Prime on Both Weapons

Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) is the THAAD prime named in the Pentagon budget document, listed at Dallas, Texas, Sunnyvale, Calif., and Huntsville, Ala. FY 2027 THAAD procurement is funded at 27 units for $907.2 million discretionary and 830 units for $10,528.0 million mandatory. In late June, the Missile Defense Agency awarded a seven-year contract for $35 billion to quadruple production of THAAD interceptors. Framework agreements aim to triple PAC-3 MSE production, quadruple THAAD production, and scale up PRISM production, with a PAC-3 multi-year targeted for the second half of 2026. Q2 revenue was $20.063 billion, up 10.5%, and backlog hit $230.42 billion. Missiles and Fire Control grew 19% year over year. The CFO flagged "near-term dilution" during the ramp.

4. RTX: Patriot, AMRAAM, Standard Missile Under One Roof

RTX (NYSE:RTX) owns the demand map for air-defense interceptors on the Army and Navy sides. Raytheon booked over $5 billion of GEM-T Patriot Effectors in Q2. That included its first domestic GEM-T production order in over 30 years, plus $1.8 billion for AMRAAM. Aegis-based Standard Missile-3 Block IIA procurement in FY 2027 is set at 22 units for $779.0 million discretionary and 114 units for $3,439.6 million mandatory. RTX has signed five framework agreements with the Department of Defense that are not yet in backlog. Companywide Q2 revenue reached $24.708 billion, up 14.5% year over year, on backlog of $289 billion. The CEO framed the constraint plainly: "all of this ... is going to be predicated on the supply chain."

5. L3Harris: The Propulsion Bottleneck

L3Harris Technologies (NYSE:LHX) inherited Aerojet Rocketdyne, which occupies the choke point of the interceptor ramp. The company signed a seven-year framework agreement for THAAD and PAC-3 production worth roughly $12 billion of future production revenue and $2 billion of future profit. L3Harris will provide all solid rocket motors and divert-and-attitude-control systems for the THAAD program. Management calls itself "the only company producing these solid rocket motors at scale on PAC-3 today." Missile Solutions revenue rose 14% in Q2. A new automated PAC-3 facility comes online in late 2027.

What to Watch Next

Two catalysts could turn this investment thesis into tangible results. First, the promised PAC-3 multi-year contract in the second half of 2026, which would pair Lockheed's THAAD win with a matching interceptor line. Second, congressional action on the administration's $67 billion supplemental request for weapons replenishment and the $1.1 trillion Department of Defense base budget for fiscal 2027. Multi-year procurement lines take years to convert into revenue. The gap between award and delivery is where the shortage persists.

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