Record diesel prices hit transport stocks, threaten U.S. inflation

Record diesel prices hit transport stocks, threaten U.S. inflation

Mon, September 21, 2026 at 4:27 PM GMT+3 2 min read

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U.S. diesel prices climbed to $6.51 a gallon on Sunday, according to AAA, pushing transport stocks lower and sending fuel costs rippling through freight, food, and consumer goods markets. The national average has risen more than 40 cents in the past week alone.

J.B. Hunt Transport Services stock shed more than 13% last Wednesday after finance chief Brad Delco warned at a Morgan Stanley industry conference that the company's earnings would fall between 5% and 10% from the second to the third quarter due to fuel costs. Delco described the price swings as "some of the most radical and abnormal swings in fuel prices that I think we've ever seen," adding that record diesel costs were creating at least a $10 million headwind for the company. The Dow Jones Transportation Average fell more than 2% the same day.

The Energy Information Administration put the national on-highway diesel average at $6.285 a gallon as of September 14, up 32 cents from the prior week and $2.55 higher than a year earlier. California's statewide diesel average stood at $8.039 a gallon as of that date. The EIA data showed diesel prices have risen by $2.759 over the past two years nationally.

The price surge is rooted in two overlapping supply disruptions, as detailed in earlier coverage of J.B. Hunt's earnings warning. Conflict between the U.S. and Iran has restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, cutting crude flows and straining refinery output. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refining infrastructure have compounded those losses, with Moscow banning diesel exports — a significant loss given Russia's historical role as a major diesel exporter.

Carmit Glik, CEO of Ship4wd, said diesel costs move through "freight rates, farm equipment, food delivery, and home heating — anything that touches a truck at some point in its journey," according to MarketWatch. The lag between a diesel price surge and its arrival in consumer prices typically runs several weeks as fuel surcharges work through the logistics chain.

Home heating costs this winter are also at risk. Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, warned that households dependent on heating oil — concentrated in the Northeast — could face bills as much as 31% higher this winter if diesel prices hold at current levels, according to CNBC.

Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley called on President Donald Trump over the weekend to impose an embargo on U.S. diesel exports, arguing the prices are devastating farmers and truckers. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said last week he was "open" to examining such a ban, according to Newsweek. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said "every idea should be on the table" but expressed doubt an export ban would lower prices and warned it could backfire if trading partners responded with their own restrictions.