Nvidia Stock Is Up 21% in Six Months. Here’s What the Street Still Isn’t Pricing In

Gian Estrada

Sat, September 19, 2026 at 12:04 AM GMT+3 5 min read

Nvidia Stock Is Up 21% in Six Months. Here's What the Street Still Isn't Pricing In ©TIKR

Key Takeaways

Six-Month Run: NVDA stock has climbed 20.6% since mid-March, a 45.4% annualized pace, even as the S&P 500 wobbled under the Fed's rate hike and a 10-year Treasury yield near 5%.
Model Verdict: TIKR's model puts fair value at $643, implying 193% total return by early 2031.
Coverage Split: Nvidia stock carries 48 buy ratings, 10 outperforms, 2 holds, 2 no opinions and 1 sell, with a mean target of $328, 50% above the current price.
Supply Squeeze: Nvidia guided to roughly 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028 on demand it calls supply-constrained, with cloud industry backlog above $2 trillion.

Why Nvidia Stock Climbed 21% While Rate Hikes Hit the Rest of the Market

NVDA Stock Price: 6-Months (TIKR)

Nvidia (NVDA) stock has climbed 20.6% since mid-March, a 45.4% annualized pace, while the Federal Reserve's first rate hike in more than three years pushed the 10-year Treasury yield toward 5% and dragged the S&P 500 into back-to-back weekly declines. Most of the market treated the hike as a reason to sell. Nvidia stock kept climbing anyway.

The gap traces back to Nvidia's August 26 earnings report, where the company posted $96 billion in quarterly revenue, more than double a year earlier, and guided to roughly 70% growth for fiscal 2028. CFO Colette Kress was blunt about what was holding that number down: "We expect to grow revenue by approximately 70% in fiscal 2028. This is a supply-constrained outlook." Demand, in other words, isn't the ceiling. Manufacturing capacity is.

Speaking two weeks later at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia conference, CEO Jensen Huang pointed to the mechanism compounding underneath the stock's climb. Grace Blackwell rack orders were running up "month-to-month increase 27%," he said. "That compounds. That's called a high-growth value stock." Revenue per gigawatt of data center compute has scaled from $18,000 under Hopper to $25,000 under Blackwell to $40,000 with the newly shipping Vera Rubin platform, and each jump has widened Nvidia's share of the same buildout dollar.

None of this erased the near-term cost pressure. Kress also flagged "extreme pricing conditions in memory" that will push gross margin down to 71% to 72% in the fourth quarter before recovering. But investors have so far treated that as a temporary drag on a business whose top line keeps reaccelerating, not a reason to doubt the trajectory.

Nvidia Stock Trails the Cash-Return Trade Dominating 2026

Nvidia stock's rally has not come from investors chasing yield. Morningstar's Dividend and Buyback index, weighted toward financials and energy names, gained over 31% from January through August, versus roughly 14% for the broader US market and just 2% to 23% for Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft combined. Nvidia pays no meaningful dividend and hasn't kept buybacks paced with its share price. Its 20% run is a bet on compute economics, not a slice of the income rotation lifting the rest of the market.

Nvidia's climb isn't a rate story or a rotation story. It's a bet that the revenue-per-gigawatt math Huang described keeps compounding faster than the supply chain can catch up to it.

Wall Street Keeps Chasing Nvidia Stock's Rally Higher

Nvidia stock carries 48 buy ratings, 10 outperforms, 2 holds, 2 no opinions and 1 sell in the most recent count. Separately, 58 analysts publish a price target, and their mean sits at $328, 50% above the current price of $219.

Street Analysts Target for NVDIA Stock (TIKR)

That gap has been widening for over a year, and not just because the stock went up. Back in July 2025, Nvidia closed at $173.50 against a mean target of $180, a Target/Close ratio of 104%, essentially in line with the stock. By September 2026, the close had risen 26% to $219, but the mean target had risen 82% to $328, pushing the ratio to 150%. Analysts aren't just keeping pace with Nvidia stock's climb. They're raising targets faster than the stock can close the distance, and coverage has held steady near 56 to 58 analysts the entire way.

TIKR's Model Puts Nvidia Stock at $643, a 193% Return by 2031

TIKR's mid-case model values Nvidia at $643 by January 2031, implying 193% total return from the current price of $219, or 28% annualized over 4.4 years.

NVDA Stock Valuation Model Results (TIKR)

A 28% annualized pace sustained for more than four years would put Nvidia stock in the same range as the market's scarcest long-duration compounders, a status its current 50% gap to the Street's own mean target already gestures toward without fully pricing in.

The model's growth path leans on the same math Huang laid out at Goldman: per-gigawatt revenue climbing well past today's $40,000 with Vera Rubin as future architectures extend the curve. That even the Street's own $328 mean target sits nearly $315 below TIKR's $643 case says the most bullish sell-side shops still haven't caught up to what a full compute buildout cycle implies.

Should You Invest in NVIDIA Corporation?

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