Aflac'ın (AFL) Net Kazançları % 37,7 Arttı, Ancak Düzeltilmiş Kazançlar Aslında Düştü

Aflac’s (AFL) Net Earnings Jumped 37.7%, Yet Adjusted Earnings Actually Fell

Sat, September 19, 2026 at 3:45 PM GMT+3 4 min read

• AFL -0.23%

On August 6, Aflac (NYSE:AFL) reported second-quarter numbers that point in opposite directions. Net earnings climbed to $825 million, helped along by investment losses that shrank to $153 million from $421 million a year ago. Adjusted earnings, though, fell 7.7% to $883 million. Both numbers are real, but they answer different questions. Which measure you trust changes the story, so here is what sits underneath.

What the Yen Hides

Start with the yen, because it is muddying the picture. The average rate was 159.45 to the dollar, 9.3% weaker than a year earlier, and that cost adjusted earnings $0.05 a share. Take the currency out of the first half and adjusted earnings per share rose 4.1% to $3.57. Japan is also running more profitably. Its pretax adjusted margin widened to 34.3% from 32.0% as claims took a smaller bite out of premiums, and yen-based pretax adjusted earnings rose 3.4%. So part of the decline in Japan's dollar-reported profit is currency, not operations.

The US business is still growing at the top line. Net earned premiums rose 2.3% to $1.5 billion, and sales climbed 2.6% to $349 million, led by group voluntary benefits along with dental and vision plans. In Japan, the refreshed Tsumitasu life policy and the new Anshin Palette medical product grew strongly in the quarter, and first-half sales rose 7.0% to ¥37.3 billion. Then there is the cash. Aflac returned $1.3 billion to shareholders in the quarter, $983 million of it through buybacks, and declared a $0.61 third-quarter dividend, payable September 1 to holders of record on August 19, 2026. Management notes 43 straight years of dividend increases through 2025 and says the board is on a path to extend that in 2026.

Where the Profit Slipped

The catch is that Japan's profit gains came from lower claims, not a bigger business. Net earned premiums in yen fell 3.7%, mainly because of a new external reinsurance deal and older limited-pay policies reaching paid-up status. Premium persistency, the share of policies customers keep, slipped to 92.7% from 93.7%. Japan's pretax adjusted earnings still fell 2.1% once currency is stripped out, and new sales dipped 5.6% in the quarter against a tough comparison for the Miraito cancer product, which launched in March 2025.

The US segment has its own soft spot. Pretax adjusted earnings fell 4.6% to $370 million, and the margin narrowed to 20.9% from 22.5% as claims and benefits took a bigger share of premiums. Corporate and Other swung to a $10 million pretax adjusted loss from a $20 million gain a year earlier, with interest expense up 21.6% to $62 million. And adjusted book value per share, excluding foreign currency remeasurement, slid to $41.22 at June 30 from $42.97 a year earlier.

Funds Leave, Shorts Stay Away

Hedge fund holders of Aflac fell to 39 in the latest quarter from 46 in the prior one. That means institutions are trimming, not adding. Short interest sits at 2.84% of the float, so few investors are betting against the company. Fewer funds but little short interest points to indifference rather than conviction either way. The stock trades at 15.20 times forward earnings, as of September 18, a price that assumes steady profits rather than fast growth.

Two Scoreboards, One Insurer

The evidence leaves a real tension, because reported profit and adjusted profit are telling different stories about the same insurer. One shows a company earning more on paper, widening its Japan margin, and handing plenty back to shareholders. The other shows shrinking Japanese premiums, a thinner US margin, and adjusted earnings that slipped. Optimists need the new Japanese products to rebuild the premium base, and skeptics are watching for US claims to keep climbing and Japanese persistency to keep sliding.

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