Coca-Cola Stock Is Up 9,234% Since Warren Buffett’s Famous 1988 Bet. Here’s How Much He Would Have Made If He Bet On Pepsi Instead.

Coca-Cola Stock Is Up 9,234% Since Warren Buffett’s Famous 1988 Bet. Here’s How Much He Would Have Made If He Bet On Pepsi Instead.

Danielle Liverance

Fri, September 18, 2026 at 5:08 PM GMT+3 4 min read

Quick Read

• A $10,000 bet on KO in 1988 grew to $933,000 versus $634,000 for PEP, with dividends reinvested through 2026.

• KO's 55% drawdown lasted nearly five years, but Buffett never sold, proving patience mattered more than the initial pick.

• PEP trades 23% below its 2023 peak despite offering a 4.22% yield, while KO sits just 4% off its all-time high.

• Just released. Our analysts combed the entire stock market and named the ten best stocks to buy right now, and Coca-Cola didn't make the cut. Enter your email to see the names that beat KO. The report is free. Enter your email and see if any of your stocks made the cut.

Warren Buffett is stepping down as chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, telling CNBC, "Father Time always wins." The Australian Financial Review reported he is doing so at 96. His son Howard Buffett was named to replace him, and Greg Abel has been CEO for about a year. His 1988 bet on Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) is worth revisiting against the road not taken: PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP).

Coke Won, but Not the Way You Think

From December 31, 1987 through September 17, 2026, with dividends reinvested, Total Real Returns shows Coca-Cola delivered 9,234.32%, an annualized 12.43% per year. A $10,000 stake became $933,432.27. Pepsi returned 6,242.11%, an annualized 11.31%, turning the same stake into $634,211.15. Coke won.

Those are hypothetical figures for a reinvested $10,000. They are not Buffett's actual return. His cost basis and the timing of his purchases are not known to us, so his personal profit is a different number we are not claiming to know.

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Winning Position Spent Years Looking Wrong

The trophy came the hard way. Coca-Cola's worst drawdown in this window was 55.29%, running from a July 14, 1998 peak to a bottom on March 10, 2003. More than half the position, gone, for nearly five years. Buffett did not sell. Pepsi's worst was gentler: 40.41%, from a January 10, 2008 peak to March 9, 2009.

Pepsi Beat Coke for Long Stretches

The Pepsi pick genuinely looked smarter for years at a time. In 2000, Pepsi returned 42.63% against Coke's 5.98%. In 2014, Pepsi delivered 17.27% versus Coke's 5.27%. Whole chapters favored the other bottle.

Then Coke Ran Away

Rolling returns through September 17, 2026 tell a lopsided story now.

Pepsi has essentially gone nowhere for five years.

Cheaper, Higher Yield, and Still the Laggard

Pepsi's dividend yield sits at 4.22%, per Digrin, against Coca-Cola's 2.36%. Pepsi trades 22.98% below its May 12, 2023 peak, while Coca-Cola is just 3.70% off its August 24, 2026 high. The cheaper, higher-yielding name is the loser of this comparison. Take from that what you will.

Buffett Is Leaving Still Holding

Berkshire's most recent quarterly holdings disclosure, covering positions as of June 30, 2026 and filed on August 14, 2026, showed 400,000,000 Coca-Cola shares, or 9.296814516232121% of the company, according to Australian Financial Review. That disclosure describes June holdings reported in August rather than a live position.

What I Take From Nearly Four Decades

The clean number gets the headline. The story is the holding. Nearly forty years, a drawdown of more than half survived without a sale, and a long stretch when the other choice looked smarter. Coke paid only because the holder stayed, and he is leaving with the position still on the sheet. If you want to borrow the rest of his homework, we pulled the seven cheapest dividend payers still inside Berkshire's portfolio into a free report here.

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