First Phosphate shareholders could see reduced dilution risk, Noble says after SERV news

First Phosphate shareholders could see reduced dilution risk, Noble says after SERV news

Thu, September 17, 2026 at 8:39 PM GMT+3 2 min read

• PHOS -1.20%

First Phosphate Corp. (CSE:PHOS, NASDAQ:PHOS, FRA:KD0, OTCQX:FRSPF) shares could see reduced dilution risk after Noble Capital Markets highlighted the potential for a sharply lower equity funding requirement at the company's flagship Bégin-Lamarche project, following a letter of support from Swiss Export Risk Insurance (SERV).

SERV has indicated it could provide financing of approximately US$212.5 million tied to Swiss machinery, equipment, goods and services for the Bégin-Lamarche mine and processing facility.

The financing is based on an assumed US$250 million eligible Swiss export contract, with SERV prepared to consider covering 85% of that contract value.

"If the EIFO and SERV indications become definitive, the remaining equity requirement for Bégin-Lamarche could be modest relative to the size of the project," Noble analysts wrote.

Beyond de-risking the project, the analysts said the most important implication for shareholders may be a reduced need for future equity issuance and greater per-share exposure to Bégin-Lamarche's economics.

The SERV announcement follows EIFO's earlier letter of intent for up to €170 million in guaranteed financing support. The Canadian government's G7 Critical Minerals Resilience and Production Alliance announcement also highlighted Danish support for the Bégin-Lamarche mine and Italian financial and industrial support for First Phosphate's downstream phosphoric acid facility.

Switzerland is not a G7 member, but Noble noted that SERV's participation adds another significant European state-backed export finance institution to a project already drawing support through G7-related initiatives.

Using the approximately US$195 million equivalent of EIFO's €170 million guarantee indication together with SERV's US$212.5 million, potential export credit agency-supported financing reaches roughly US$407.5 million. That represents about 83% of the US$490 million initial capital estimate in First Phosphate's 2024 Preliminary Economic Assessment, which included a 20% project contingency.

On that basis, Noble said only about US$82.5 million would remain to be funded by other sources.

Analysts have an Outperform rating and a $25.50 price target on the stock.