Solana Price Prediction: What Could SOL Be Worth Before Q4?

Solana Price Prediction: What Could SOL Be Worth Before Q4?

Sam Daodu

Wed, September 16, 2026 at 8:14 PM GMT+3 5 min read

• SOL-USD -3.22%

Quick Read

• Solana trades at $97 after losing $100, down 7% weekly but up 29% monthly, with Q4 hinging on whether $94 support holds.

• Solana ETF inflows collapsed 96% in early September, removing the passive bid that drove the August rally to $110.

• Alpenglow, activating September 28, is the only remaining SOL-specific catalyst before Q4 and the one condition Solana controls.

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Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) fell about 3.4% over 24 hours to trade near $97 on Wednesday, pulling back toward levels it hadn't traded at since before a rally carried it above $100 in August.

The drop followed the Senate's failure to advance the CLARITY Act, a bill the crypto industry had spent years building support for. So does $94 hold, or does Solana have further to fall?

Why Did Solana Drop to $97 After the CLARITY Vote?

The Senate failed to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633, the CLARITY Act, on September 15. The vote ended 49 yeas to 50 nays, short of the 60 votes Senate Rule XXII requires to end debate and move a bill toward a floor vote. Solana fell 3.4% on the day, while Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) dropped 1.2% to roughly $75,961 and XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) fell 9.4% to $1.28 over the same window.

Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats, so Majority Leader John Thune needed seven Democratic or independent votes to reach 60. Negotiators had already folded 126 Democratic amendments into the bill, including new ethics restrictions on crypto dealings by public officials.

Polymarket traders put the chance of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at 18.5% Tuesday morning, down about 12 points from a day earlier, and the odds have since fallen to 5%. Solana's selloff tracked that shift in real time, alongside similar drops in Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP, as the vote count became public.

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What Does the CLARITY Vote Outcome Mean for Solana

The SEC and CFTC jointly named Solana one of 16 digital commodities in a March 2026 interpretation, a classification that already treats SOL the way securities law treats Bitcoin. That interpretation ranks below a formal statute, which means a future SEC and CFTC could reverse it without seeking Congress's approval. So, only the CLARITY Act would lock Solana's commodity status into law.

Solana has a stake in the passage of this bill that Bitcoin doesn't share. The CLARITY Act's DeFi provisions would require trading venues and apps that facilitate SOL purchases to register for the first time. Bitcoin's markets face no equivalent requirement, because no regulator has challenged Bitcoin's commodity status in years.

Meanwhile, the SEC named SOL a core ETF asset on September 5, 2026, ten days before the failed vote, which raises what's riding on permanent legal footing now that spot Solana ETFs depend on that same classification.

The failed cloture vote doesn't kill the bill outright. Senator Thune can bring the CLARITY Act back to the floor later in the session, but the setback makes passage in 2026 considerably harder without ending the legislation for good. Until a new vote happens, Solana's commodity status rests on the March interpretation, which a future Commission could easily revoke.

Is $94 the Floor for Solana Right Now?

Solana's critical support level is $94.16, with resistance at $98.77 and $99.42. SOL trades below its 20-hour and 50-hour moving averages, and both the MACD and ADX indicators point to negative momentum.

If SOL reclaims $98.77 and holds it, short positions get squeezed, and momentum could turn. Until that happens, sellers retain control of the chart.

As things stand, $94.16 looks like the level Solana has to defend, rather than a comfortable floor. Technical indicators point down, momentum still favors sellers, and the CLARITY Act's failure removed a catalyst that might have pulled buyers back in the same week the Federal Reserve raised rates.

That said, if SOL reclaims $98.77 and holds, the setup flips and $94.16 stops being the level everyone watches. A revived CLARITY Act push later this session, or a court or Commission ruling that treats Solana's March classification as harder to reverse than it currently is, would change the outlook further out.

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