The 2027 Social Security Raise Is Tracking at 3.6%. On the Average Check That’s About $75 a Month. What Medicare Takes Back Won’t Be Known Until November

The 2027 Social Security Raise Is Tracking at 3.6%. On the Average Check That’s About $75 a Month. What Medicare Takes Back Won’t Be Known Until November

David Beren

Wed, September 16, 2026 at 6:13 PM GMT+3 5 min read

Quick Read

• AARP projects a 3.6% Social Security COLA for 2027, adding roughly $75 monthly to the average check, while the Senior Citizens League forecasts 3.5%.

• The official COLA drops October 14, but the Medicare Part B premium that offsets it won't be announced until November, leaving budgeters with incomplete data.

• Hold-harmless rules protect most retirees from net payment cuts, but higher-income enrollees facing IRMAA surcharges and newly enrolled Medicare recipients get no such protection.

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The projected Social Security raise for 2027 is the biggest in years, and it is also a moving target, according to recent reports. In the same week, two of the most closely watched forecasters revised their estimates in opposite directions. Neither is official, and the actual number will not be announced until October; the Medicare premium that determines how much of the raise reaches a retiree's bank account will not be announced until November. Anyone budgeting today is working with half the picture.

Two Forecasts, One Week, Opposite Directions

AARP said on September 11 that it now forecasts a 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment for 2027, up from 3.5% a month earlier. On the average retired worker's check, AARP estimates that works out to roughly $75 a month. The Senior Citizens League moved the other way in the same week. The Senior Citizens League cut its forecast to 3.5%, down from 3.6% a month earlier, and estimates that translates to a $67.90 increase on the average check, which the group projects would climb to $2,007.98.

The two figures represent separate estimates from two separate organizations, sitting on either side of the same rounding line. Neither is the official number. Both will be superseded when the government releases its own calculation.

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Why the Estimates Keep Moving

A formula sets the adjustment. Social Security compares the average Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, known as CPI-W, across July, August and September against the same three months a year earlier. The July and August 2026 readings are in, according to The Fiscal Times. September is not, as that single month of data, released in mid-October, closes the calculation. It is also why estimates that looked settled in August can shift again in September, and why the two forecasts diverged this week after fresh inflation data landed.

The Fiscal Times reports the official 2027 adjustment is scheduled for October 14, after the final month of inflation data is released. Until then, every published figure is a projection.

Context on the Size of the Raise

Whichever forecast proves closer, an adjustment in this range would be the largest in years. The Fiscal Times notes the adjustment that took effect for 2026 was 2.8%, and the last increase larger than the current forecasts was the 8.7% announced for 2023. The reason the number is running higher is straightforward: The paper also points out that inflation continues to run above the Federal Reserve's 2% annual target, and the COLA formula is designed to track exactly that kind of price pressure. The formula produces a bigger raise when prices are still climbing.

Medicare's Half, and Why Most Coverage Gets It Wrong

The Fiscal Times says the Part B premium for 2027 does not exist yet. CMS announces Medicare Part B premiums and deductibles in November, after the Social Security number is public. Retirees learn what they are getting before they learn what is being taken back. Any article quoting a precise 2027 Part B figure right now is guessing, according to The Fiscal Times.

What is known is the current year. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services set the standard monthly Part B premium at $202.90 for 2026, up $17.90 from the $185.00 standard premium in 2025. That increase absorbed a meaningful share of last year's raise for many beneficiaries. It reflects a pattern with a known precedent rather than a projection of a specific dollar amount for next year.

Who Actually Keeps the Raise

The hold-harmless provision determines who is protected when premiums rise. In general, it prevents an increase in the standard Part B premium from exceeding a beneficiary's dollar increase in Social Security benefits, so most enrollees whose Part B premium is deducted from their Social Security check cannot see their net payment fall from one year to the next. The exceptions matter. Higher-income beneficiaries subject to the income-related monthly adjustment amounts are not protected, and neither are people newly enrolled in Medicare. For those groups, the full standard premium and any surcharge apply regardless of the size of the raise (we mapped the IRMAA thresholds and the other premium traps in a free Medicare guide).

Two Dates That Matter

October 14 is when a retiree learns the raise, according to The Fiscal Times. November is when they learn what Medicare takes back. Anyone doing a 2027 budget in October is working with a top-line number that has not yet been reduced by the offset, according to The Fiscal Times. The prudent read is to wait for both announcements before adjusting withdrawals, discretionary spending, or bill-pay dates. Until then, the straightforward answer is that no forecast is authoritative, and any precise 2027 Part B figure being circulated now is a guess, according to The Fiscal Times.

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