Nebius Keeps Getting My Money. There Is One Reason and It Is Not Hype.

Alex Sirois

Mon, September 14, 2026 at 6:07 PM GMT+3 5 min read

Quick Read

Nebius (NBIS) holds $40 billion in contracted backlog against a $49 billion market cap, with customers prepaying between 50 and 60 percent of capex.
Microsoft signed an $18 billion Nebius agreement and NVIDIA injected $2 billion in equity, validating the pure-play over owning MSFT or NVDA directly.
CEO Arkady Volozh says Nebius could sell its entire 2027 capacity today, with a capacity auction clearing 15% above its highest-ever Blackwell pricing.
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I keep hitting the buy button on Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) because of a single number on the balance sheet: $37.49 billion in remaining performance obligations. That is contracted, multi-year revenue customers have already committed to pay.

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One Reason Backed by Signed Contracts

Hype describes what could happen. A signed contract describes what has already been decided. Nebius ended Q2 2026 with that $37.49 billion backlog and, according to management, roughly $40 billion in total contracted backlog and customer commitments. Against a market cap near $49.49 billion, that is book-of-business visibility most cloud names can only advertise.

The composition matters more than the headline. Approximately 70% of Q2 deals carried upfront prepayments, and customer prepayments are expected to provide more than $9 billion of funding in 2026 alone, covering 50% to 60% of the associated capital expenditures. Customers, in effect, fund the factory. That directly reduces the equity and debt Nebius must raise, which is what any long-term holder cares about.

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What the Numbers Actually Show

Q2 group revenue landed at $582.30 million, up 454.04% year over year, beating consensus. The Nebius AI Cloud segment grew 514% and posted a 50% adjusted EBITDA margin. Group adjusted EBITDA reached $236 million against a prior-year loss of $21 million. Annualized run-rate revenue hit $3 billion in June, up from $1.9 billion at the end of March.

Then there is the pricing signal. Nebius ran a capacity auction that cleared at 15% above the highest price it had ever charged for Blackwell-generation chips, and 20% above its Blackwell pipeline pricing. Short-duration premium contracts price at $40 million to $50 million per megawatt versus $20 million to $25 million per megawatt on core deals. That is live price discovery in a market starving for capacity.

Nebius vs. the Obvious Alternatives

Readers will ask why I do not just own Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) or NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) for AI infrastructure exposure. Both are Nebius validators. Microsoft signed a Nebius agreement valued at $17.4 billion to $19.4 billion, and NVIDIA put $2 billion of strategic equity into the company on top of pre-funded warrants. When the dominant AI chipmaker and one of the largest software platforms both write checks in the same direction, I want the pure-play they are writing to. Nebius AI Cloud was 98% of group revenue in Q2. Any diversified hyperscaler dilutes that exposure by design.

Concentration Risk I Track Every Quarter

Three customers made up 24%, 21%, and 14% of Q2 revenue. Convertible debt carrying value sits at $8.5 billion with fair value of $20.8 billion, and GAAP EPS was -$0.68 for the quarter. Dilution and concentration are real. What keeps me in the position is that customer prepayments and the $775 million asset-backed facility Nebius signed in July 2026 are progressively replacing dilutive financing with contract-collateralized debt at SOFR plus 250 basis points. Every dollar of prepaid contract revenue is a dollar the company does not have to raise from me.

What Keeps the Buy Button Active

Contracted power steps up to 5 gigawatts by year-end 2026, and CEO Arkady Volozh told the Q2 call, "We could sell today our entire 2027 capacity on these terms if we wanted to." When a supplier has to ration what customers are willing to prepay for, I keep buying. Nebius is one slice of the broader picks-and-shovels trade behind the AI buildout, and we profiled seven more suppliers powering, cooling, and networking these data centers in a free report you can grab here.

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