Databricks'in 190 milyar $ FİYATININ ardındaki matematik henüz tutmuyor

The math behind Databricks' $190B price doesn't add up—yet

Mon, September 14, 2026 at 11:41 AM GMT+3 2 min read

• DATB.PVT

Databricks has built one of the strongest private software companies in the world, but its $190 billion price tag is a bit steep, argues a new PitchBook report.

"Databricks is a high-quality business but an unattractive investment at the current price," said Harrison Rolfes, the report's author and senior analyst covering late-stage companies.

In August, Databricks raised $5 billion at a $190 billion valuation, led by Coatue, up 41.8% from the company's last valuation of $134 billion, priced in February. The company said in August that its annualized run rate rose over the same stretch from $5.4 billion to $7 billion, a 29.6% increase.

Rolfes' report estimates the business is closer to a $68.7 billion operating value (what the business itself is worth before accounting for debt, cash, and preferred shares that get paid ahead of common shareholders), a 64% discount from the $190 billion valuation.

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Looking ahead, the most optimistic scenario—which requires Databricks to achieve 80% gross margins, continue hitting its growth targets, and see market conditions cooperate—still values the company at only $182.1 billion.

The gap comes down to how the report estimates Databricks' future profits.

Rolfes projected Databricks' revenue and cash flow over the next 10 years, then discounted them back to today's dollars to account for changes in the value of money. The forecast also makes assumptions on how Databricks will behave and grow in the future, estimating that recognized revenue growth next year settles at 48% and then into single digits by the mid-2030s.

Putting all that together, the model has Databricks generating $9.3 billion of cash a year by 2035. Real money, but not enough to justify $190 billion today.

Snowflake, Databricks' chief competitor, offers the closest thing to a reality check. The public data-warehousing company was worth about $124 billion in early September, trading at about 20 times the revenue it expects this fiscal year.

Databricks' $190 billion is premised against its $7 billion run rate, which works out to a valuation multiple of 27x. Databricks is growing faster than Snowflake, so Rolfes argues some of the premium is warranted. But Snowflake's numbers are all audited and reported, unlike Databricks' self-reported figures, which leave an incomplete picture.

"The central question is no longer whether Databricks is a great business," Rolfes said. "It is whether the price leaves enough return for the next investor."

This article originally appeared on PitchBook News