Dear SpaceX Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for September 21

Pathikrit Bose

Sun, September 13, 2026 at 8:08 PM GMT+3 5 min read

SPCX +2.04%

A close-up of a SpaceX sign by Sundry Photography via Adobe Stock

SpaceX (SPCX), which made a sensational debut on the bourses in June 2026, has been trading relatively sideways since then, although it remains above its initial public offering price (IPO) of $135 per share. This is surprising, considering the company is led by CEO Elon Musk, one of the most volatile and polarizing figures in corporate history whose penchant for making headlines is infamous.

However, on Sept. 21, SPCX stock could get a much-needed boost. Let's take a closer look.

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What Happens on September 21?

On Sept. 21, a purported increase in SpaceX's publicly traded shares has the potential to add $15.5 billion in passive inflows to the stock following a rebalancing of the Nasdaq-100, according to Wall Street major JPMorgan. Currently, SPCX stock has a weight of 1.25% in the index. With the rebalancing, that is expected to potentially increase to 2.25%.

Valued at a market capitalization of about $1.97 trillion, SPCX stock is down roughly 12% from its opening price of $171.74 on June 15.

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However, investors should be cautious before making a beeline for SPCX stock on this news, as additional shares will be available for sale by pre-IPO investors such as insiders, early backers, and employees. By the end of October, more than 1 billion shares are expected to become available, while another tranche of 1.3 billion shares could hit the market after the company posts its third-quarter results in November. Here, though, we must note that while these shares will be tradable, the holders may opt not to sell them, as was evident in an earlier lock-up expiration period in August.

Overall, Nasdaq's actions around SpaceX have been indirectly beneficial for the company. Just shortly before IPO, for example, Nasdaq changed its methodology for inclusion in the index. On May 1, Nasdaq implemented several changes to the Nasdaq-100 methodology. The most important change for SpaceX was a new "Fast Entry" provision. Under the new provision, a newly listed company can enter the Nasdaq-100 on an expedited basis if its full market cap would rank among the top 40 constituents of the Nasdaq-100. "These companies are evaluated on their seventh trading day and, if eligible, added shortly thereafter, with all existing liquidity requirements still applying," Nasdaq noted.

Notably, JPMorgan estimates that this resulted in passive inflows of about $4.3 billion into SPCX stock.

Unsurprisingly, there was some meaningful backlash around this move, as Nasdaq was perceived to be bending its rules for SpaceX. One criticism came from Morningstar Chief Equity Market Strategist Michael Field. "Clearly, there's a lot of demand, that's why they fast-tracked the integration into the index," Field said. "A lot of people will be happy with it. Some fund managers less so, the skeptics amongst them, us included. We think the stock is overvalued."

That said, inclusion in the S&P 500 ($SPX) is still not a reality for SpaceX, as the index did not change its rules for faster inclusion of any newly listed companies. "Exceptions to the financial viability, seasoning, and IWF requirements should not be granted solely based on market capitalization," S&P noted in a press release on June 4.

A Look at SpaceX's Numbers

SpaceX has achieved meaningful revenue expansion in recent years, rising from $10.4 billion in 2023 to $18.7 billion in 2025. The company also recorded profits of $791 million in 2024 before reporting a loss of $4.9 billion in 2025.

Operating cash flow strengthened over this timeframe, advancing to $6.8 billion in 2025 from $4.5 billion in 2023. The company closed 2025 with a robust cash balance of $24.7 billion and minimal short-term debt, helping ease liquidity risks.

For Q2 2026, SpaceX reported revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year (YOY). Net loss came in at $541 million, improving from a net loss of $1 billion in the same period a year ago. By the end of Q2, the company held $93.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents.

SpaceX's capital expenditures have increased substantially across the past three years, climbing from $4.4 billion in 2023 to $20.7 billion in 2025. Spending on artificial intelligence (AI) has grown especially quickly, beginning at $463 million in 2023 as the smallest category among Space, Connectivity, and AI before jumping to $12.7 billion in 2025 and becoming the dominant area of investment for the company. This progression shows how SpaceX, which originally emphasized space operations and connectivity services, is now positioning AI as a central foundation for future initiatives across its businesses. In Q2 2026 alone, AI capex came in at $15.8 billion.

Examining the Q2 2026 revenue mix, Connectivity continues to lead, contributing $4.29 billion of the $7.8 billion revenue total for the quarter. The AI segment contributed $2.56 billion, a solid result for a newer line of business, while the Space segment generated revenue of $962 million in Q2.

From a valuation standpoint, SPCX stock still looks grossly overvalued. For example, the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 103.7 times is significantly higher than the sector median.

What Do Analysts Think of SPCX Stock?

Overall, analysts are cautiously optimistic about SPCX stock and have a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating. Out of 36 analysts covering SpaceX stock, 24 have a "Strong Buy" rating, two have a "Moderate Buy" rating, seven have a "Hold" rating, one has a "Moderate Sell" rating, and two have a "Strong Sell" rating. The mean target price of $219.71 indicates potential upside of about 45% from current levels.