Ripple’s David Schwartz Says XRP Can Flip Bitcoin. Here’s the $24.50 Math

Ripple’s David Schwartz Says XRP Can Flip Bitcoin. Here’s the $24.50 Math

Sam Daodu

Sat, September 12, 2026 at 1:29 AM GMT+3 6 min read

Quick Read

• Ripple's David Schwartz says XRP flipping Bitcoin is

• XRP would need to multiply 18-fold to $24.50, surpassing 6.4 times its all-time high of $3.84.

• XRP Ledger throughput growth and U.S. spot ETF traction are the key signals that $24.50 shifts from thought experiment to real target.

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Ripple's CTO Emeritus David Schwartz said, on September 9, that XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) flipping Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC), is "probably more likely than not." However, that only happens if XRP grows faster than Bitcoin, and Bitcoin doesn't have to shrink. XRP trades near $1.38 today, and matching Bitcoin's market cap at current levels would put XRP at roughly $24.97.

That would be about 18 times XRP's price today and 6.5 times its January 2018 all-time high of $3.84. Schwartz did not give a timeline or set his own price target. He described a scenario in which the entire digital asset market grows substantially, allowing the biggest cryptocurrencies to rise together as the overall market expands.

But getting XRP from $1.38 to $24.97 would require much more than a broad crypto rally. So what would have to happen for XRP to reach that level?

Schwartz Sees XRP Catching Bitcoin Through Growth

A listener named Angie asked Schwartz during an X Spaces hosted by ILLY on September 9, 2026, whether XRP could eventually flip Bitcoin. Schwartz answered, "Yeah, I do," but made clear that he does not expect it to happen because Bitcoin loses value. In his view, XRP would have to grow faster than Bitcoin for the flip to happen.

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Schwartz also acknowledged that the outcome is far from certain, saying he thinks XRP surging is "probably more likely than not." He framed the possibility within a much larger crypto market, where the total value of digital assets grows and the leading cryptocurrencies rise along with it. For XRP, that growth would depend on greater usage and adoption of the XRP Ledger rather than Bitcoin losing buyers to XRP.

Schwartz did not attach a price target or timeline to the idea, so his comments describe a possible path rather than a forecast for when XRP could overtake Bitcoin. He stepped down as Ripple's CTO in December 2025 and remains one of the key architects of the XRP Ledger, giving his view weight among XRP holders. XRP has also recently outpaced Bitcoin, gaining 36% over the past month compared with Bitcoin's 24%, although that short-term performance alone does not show that XRP is on a path to overtake Bitcoin.

XRP Would Need to Reach $24.97 to Match Bitcoin's Market Cap

The market-cap gap shows just how much ground XRP would have to cover. Bitcoin trades near $79,000 as of September 11, giving it a market capitalization of about $1.57 trillion, compared with roughly $87.18 billion for XRP at $1.38. That leaves about $1.48 trillion between them, a gap that, on top of XRP's current market cap, would require XRP to reach a price of about $24.97 to fully match Bitcoin's valuation.

That target is about 18 times XRP's current price and 6.5 times its January 2018 record of $3.84. XRP has never traded above $4, so reaching $24.97 would require a move far beyond its previous high, even before considering what happens to Bitcoin during that period.

As XRP's price rises, its market cap increases, but Bitcoin's market cap could grow at the same time. That means XRP would need to gain more than enough to reach Bitcoin's current $1.57 trillion valuation if Bitcoin and the broader crypto market continue expanding. In that scenario, the price required to overtake Bitcoin would rise as well, which fits Schwartz's argument that XRP could eventually surpass Bitcoin through faster growth rather than by competing in a stagnant market.

XRP Has Passed Ethereum Before, but Bitcoin Is a Different Challenge

In late 2017 and early 2018, XRP briefly became the second-largest cryptocurrency, reaching a market capitalization of about $86 billion and moving ahead of Ethereum at roughly $73 billion. Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) reclaimed the spot within weeks, and XRP has remained below its 2018 record for most of the years since. The move came during a broad, retail-driven boom that lifted many of the largest cryptocurrencies at the same time.

Bitcoin presents a much bigger challenge because its market cap is now roughly 18 times larger than XRP's. The gap XRP closed against Ethereum in 2018 was relatively small compared with the distance between XRP and Bitcoin today, while Bitcoin now has a much broader base of long-term buyers through spot ETFs, corporate treasury demand and a more established regulatory position.

XRP is still building those same sources of demand, making a move into first place much harder than its earlier rise to No. 2.

Can XRP Flip Bitcoin?

XRP would have to grow faster than a Bitcoin market cap already worth about $1.57 trillion to flip it, but the chances that Bitcoin would continue to grow as well is high. XRP is down 25% from its $1.84 starting price for 2026, meaning it first needs to recover that lost ground before the much bigger move toward $24.97 even becomes realistic.

The first thing to watch is whether XRP Ledger usage and transaction activity can grow fast enough to support the kind of adoption Schwartz described. If XRP can move back above its $3.84 record on stronger real-world payment activity rather than another speculative surge, the case for a much higher valuation becomes easier to make. U.S. spot XRP fund flows would also provide another measure of whether demand is broadening beyond existing XRP holders.

The market-cap math says XRP can flip Bitcoin, but the current adoption gap says there is still a long way to go.

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