Firefly Aerospace vs. Joby Aviation: Which Industrials Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

Brendan Coffey, The Motley Fool

Sat, September 12, 2026 at 9:04 PM GMT+3 6 min read

Investors looking at the 2026 aerospace market face a choice between orbital dominance and urban air taxis. Both Firefly Aerospace (NASDAQ:FLY) and Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY) are vying for long-term growth.

Firefly Aerospace provides launch services and lunar transit for government and commercial clients. Joby Aviation focuses on electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles for aerial ridesharing. While both firms are capital-intensive ventures, their specific end markets and technological hurdles set them apart for investors today.

The case for Firefly Aerospace

Firefly sells orbital launch capacity via its Alpha rocket and provides lunar landing services with its Blue Ghost vehicle. It works closely with major partners like Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE:LMT) and Northrop Grumman Corp (NYSE:NOC) to develop in-space infrastructure. This business also includes a sovereign-led franchise model that recently expanded into international launch operations in Sweden.

In FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $159.9 million, representing a 163% increase over the previous year. Despite this growth, the company reported a net loss of approximately $334 million for the period. This reflects the high research and development costs required to scale its launch cadence for defense stocks and commercial clients.

As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.3x. This ratio measures total debt (including both short-term and long-term liabilities) against shareholder equity to assess financial leverage. The company also maintains a current ratio of roughly 4.5x, which measures its ability to pay short-term bills with liquid assets, while free cash flow reached nearly negative $238 million.

The case for Joby Aviation

Joby Aviation operates an aerial ridesharing service and develops electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft for urban travel. Its strategic partners include Toyota for manufacturing and Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) for premium airport transportation services. The company also recently expanded its market access through its Blade passenger business, which connects travelers in New York City and Southern Europe.

In FY 2025, revenue reached roughly $53.4 million, which is a significant increase from the nominal amounts generated in the prior year. The company reported a net loss of approximately $930 million for the fiscal year. This loss is primarily associated with the massive investments needed to achieve FAA certification and scale manufacturing operations.

As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0x. This indicates that Joby currently has no significant debt compared to its shareholder equity. Its current ratio is nearly 24.1x, which measures a company's ability to cover its short-term debts with its short-term assets, while free cash flow reached approximately negative $563.8 million.

Risk profile comparison

Firefly Aerospace faces significant revenue concentration and dependence on government budget levels. Shifts in federal spending or government shutdowns could disrupt its contract pipeline for lunar and orbital missions. Additionally, the company navigates operational risks related to launch vehicle delays and complex international licensing requirements for its expansion.

Joby Aviation is heavily dependent on obtaining FAA Type Certification for its electric aircraft. If regulatory hurdles persist, the company may struggle to meet its production and scaling timelines. Furthermore, the emerging nature of the urban air mobility market means consumer adoption and price sensitivity remain uncertain for future flights.

Valuation comparison

While Firefly Aerospace has a lower P/S ratio, Joby Aviation remains in a much earlier phase of revenue scaling. Neither company has a forward price-to-earings ratio because they are not expected to turn a profit in their coming fiscal years.

Valuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.

Which stock would I buy in 2026?

Firefly went public in an initial public offering a year ago at $45 a share. Shares have spent much of the past year below that mark, reflecting typical post-IPO volatility.

More important is the company's recent business success. Firefly Aerospace is the only private company to achieve a successful lunar landing, doing so in March 2025 with its Blue Ghost Mission I. The success of that effort has ingratiated Firefly with NASA, which sent 10 payloads to the Moon with last year's mission. The company now plans annual missions to the Moon to deliver payloads for NASA as part of the agency's goal of constructing a permanent lunar base. Exciting stuff, and considering the attention the recent SpaceX IPO-Space Exploration Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:SPCX)-- will bring to space businesses, that can only be another positive for Firefly.

While future projections are inherently speculative, Wall Street analysts expect Firefly to top $440 million this year and reach $1 billion in annual revenue in its fiscal 2028.

In 2025, the U.S. federal government created the framework for real-world testing of eVTOL aircraft, a concrete step toward making Joby's vision a reality. Japan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia are other countries building similar regulatory frameworks. A lot still has to happen for either company's aircraft to get into the skies, but the notion that the nation's airspace is being regulated in a way that is holding back growth is one that has found favor.

Joby recently tested its Blade aircraft in New York City across different charging environments and on real-world routes it proposes, such as flying from JFK Airport, on the city's outskirts, into Manhattan. Joby is further along with its manufacturing capabilities, embedding Toyota philosophies throughout its system. Even though it is further along the path to market, analysts don't see Joby turning a profit through 2030, a year in which consensus projects $2.3 billion of revenue and a net loss of around $195 million.

Both these promising start-ups are intriguing stocks. But Joby competes in the hotly competitive aviation field and has no guarantee of success. Firefly is further along in proving its business model and comes at a much more attractive (if still pricey) P/S ratio. Firefly is the stock to buy for 2026.

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Brendan Coffey has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Firefly Aerospace. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines and Lockheed Martin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Firefly Aerospace vs. Joby Aviation: Which Industrials Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026? was originally published by The Motley Fool