Lululemon'un (LULU) Marka Sorunları Dik Yönlendirmede Bir Düşüşü Daha Zorluyor

Lululemon’s (LULU) Brand Problems Force Another Steep Guidance Downgrade

Sat, September 12, 2026 at 7:16 PM GMT+3 4 min read

• LULU +2.16%

On September 3, Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ:LULU) told investors its troubles run deeper than one soft quarter. Revenue fell 4% to $2.4 billion, comparable sales dropped 10% (on a constant dollar basis), and management cut full-year guidance for the second time this year. China Mainland is dealing with a wave of negative social media commentary, North America still can't land a product that resonates, and even the brand's signature leggings business is shrinking. Incoming CEO Heidi O'Neill was set to start the following week, tasked with rethinking a strategy that clearly needs it.

Chasing What's Actually Selling

Not everything is going wrong. Lululemon increased its chase volume, the supply chain capability that lets it reorder fast-moving styles quickly, by about 20% compared with last year. That's paying off in away-from-body pieces such as the Groove Wide-Leg, Align Foldover Jogger, Breezily, and an updated Dance Studio Pant, all trending well as shoppers move away from tight-fitting leggings. Management expects that momentum to build through the rest of 2026 and into 2027.

The brand's ability to draw a crowd hasn't disappeared either. The SeaWheeze Half Marathon and Festival returned in August for the first time since 2019, pulling in nearly 10,000 runners from 24 countries and about 14,000 attendees for an evening festival, while more than 85,000 people from 120 countries joined the companion challenge on Strava. The turnout was strong enough that Lululemon already committed to bringing the event back next summer. Rest of World revenue, spanning EMEA and APAC, grew 5% on a reported basis, with South Korea marking its 10th year in that market and a new flagship opening in Tokyo's Harajuku district.

Trouble In Its Two Biggest Markets

The bigger story is deterioration in the two markets that matter most. North America revenue fell 8%, with Canada down 11% on a reported basis, and management admitted the response to new product launches remains inconsistent heading into the third quarter. Leggings, still the brand's most important category, saw sales drop approximately 20% as shoppers shift toward looser silhouettes, a shift the company hasn't fully offset yet. Accessories revenue fell 13% as the bag business softened.

China Mainland looks worse than the headline number suggests. Revenue grew 4% on a reported basis but actually declined 2% in constant currency, hurt by what management described as a burst of negative commentary across Chinese media and social platforms after a marketing event staged at the Great Wall of China. Tmall also chose not to repeat its 618 promotional event the same way it had the prior year, and Lululemon skipped the promotions that followed, weighing further on digital sales there.

The financial toll is showing up squarely in guidance. Full-year revenue is now expected to fall 5% to 7%, landing between $10.35 billion and $10.5 billion, and full-year earnings per share guidance dropped to $9.48 to $9.73, down sharply from $13.26 in the prior fiscal year. Third-quarter operating margin is projected at roughly 6.5%, compared with 17% a year earlier, as marketing spending rises and fixed costs go unabsorbed by softer sales. The company also trimmed its store-opening plan to about 35 net new locations for the year, down from an earlier target of 40.

What The Market Is Pricing In

Hedge fund ownership tells a similar story. The number of funds holding Lululemon fell from 61 to 51 in the most recent quarter, a pullback that lines up with the guidance cuts. Short interest sits at 12.78% of the float, a level that signals organized skepticism rather than routine hedging. Yet the stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of just 9.46, as of September 11, a multiple that suggests much of the bad news is already priced in. That combination is what makes this setup unusual.

Where Lululemon Goes From Here

Lululemon's next chapter now rests with incoming CEO Heidi O'Neill, who inherits a brand that can still pack a marathon start line but hasn't turned that energy into steady sales growth. The chase strategy and the early strength in away-from-body styles show the product engine still works when it's aimed correctly. But leggings, the category that built this company, are shrinking, and brand sentiment in China and North America hasn't turned yet.

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