Robinhood’s $156M Prediction Revenue Overtakes Crypto — Now It Offers XRP $3.75 Bets

Robinhood’s $156M Prediction Revenue Overtakes Crypto — Now It Offers XRP $3.75 Bets

Kurt Robson

Wed, September 9, 2026 at 7:02 PM GMT+3 4 min read

• XRP-USD -4.08%

• HOOD35566-USD -5.19%

Key Takeaways

• Robinhood's prediction-market revenue reached $156 million in Q2, overtaking its $100 million crypto transaction revenue.

• A live contract asking whether XRP will exceed $3.75 in 2026 shows how crypto is being repackaged into yes-or-no questions.

• France's ANJ is examining Robinhood's OGC Nice sponsorship.

Robinhood is now generating more transaction revenue from prediction markets than conventional crypto trading, as customers increasingly wager on outcomes, including whether XRP will break specific price milestones.

The brokerage earned $156 million from event contracts in the second quarter of 2026, compared with $100 million from crypto transactions, according to its latest financial results.

A live Robinhood market asking whether XRP will exceed $3.75 during 2026 provides a clear example of that shift.

Rather than buying XRP and holding it, customers can speculate on an extreme price milestone that pays $1 if the target is reached and expires worthless otherwise.

Robinhood Betting Revenue Overtakes Crypto

Robinhood's second-quarter numbers show how quickly event contracts have moved from an experimental product into one of its most significant businesses.

Options remained the company's largest transaction category with $342 million in quarterly revenue.

Event contracts followed with $156 million, ahead of equities at $129 million and crypto transactions at $100 million.

Contract revenue also increased more than tenfold year over year, while the number of contracts traded reached a record 13.6 billion.

Crypto revenue, by contrast, fell 38% from the same period in 2025.

It was also the third consecutive decline, from $268 million in Q3 2025 to $221 million in Q4, $134 million in Q1 2026, and $100 million in Q2.

However, the company still operates a substantial crypto business, including Bitstamp, and recorded $40 billion in crypto notional volume during Q2.

XRP $3.75 Contract Turns an Extreme Price Call Into a Binary Bet

Robinhood's most extreme currently listed XRP threshold asks whether the token will exceed $3.75 before the end of 2026.

With XRP trading around $1.42, a move to $3.75 would require a 164% increase.

The target would also surpass the token's previous record high of roughly $3.65.

The contract is just one of Robinhood's $156 million-wide prediction-market offerings, which include sports, politics, economics, and other categories.

Robinhood also lists crypto contracts tied to exact settlement times, 15-minute price windows and shorter monthly milestones.

Crypto.com and OG.com Deal Expands Robinhood's Engine

Robinhood is preparing for further growth through a multiyear agreement with Crypto.com and OG.com.

Under the agreement, Robinhood will put selected event-contract volume through OG.com's underlying Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated exchange.

Robinhood is also taking minority equity stakes in Crypto.com and OG.com.

"Teaming up with Crypto.com and OG.com strengthens our position as a leader in the prediction markets space and gives us even more skin in the game," Robinhood executive JB Mackenzie said.

The deal gives Robinhood another venue alongside Kalshi, ForecastEx and Rothera, its independently managed joint venture with Susquehanna International Group.

The rollout began in phases for eligible US customers on Sept. 8.

France Examines OGC Nice Shirt Sponsorship

Robinhood's US expansion is colliding with a markedly different regulatory approach in Europe.

France's ANJ is examining the company's sponsorship of French football team OGC Nice, according to French newspaper L'Équipe.

Robinhood has appeared on the front of the club's men's and women's shirts since the 2025/26 season.

The central question is whether displaying Robinhood's corporate brand amounts to advertising a prediction-market service that is not authorized in France.

Robinhood's event contracts are restricted to eligible US customers.

Its French-facing services instead promote products including crypto, stock tokens and perpetual futures.

In February, the regulator said prediction-market platforms were not authorized in France and should be treated as illegal gambling services.

The ANJ subsequently ordered French internet providers to block Polymarket on July 16, arguing that its homepage promoted an unauthorized gambling offering.

French law allows fines of up to €100,000 for advertising an unauthorized gambling website.

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