Stock Index Futures Mixed as Oil Nears $100, U.S. Inflation Data Awaited

Stock Index Futures Mixed as Oil Nears $100, U.S. Inflation Data Awaited

Oleksandr Pylypenko

Tue, September 8, 2026 at 1:30 PM GMT+3 11 min read

• CL=F +3.55%

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU26) are down -0.20%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU26) are up +0.05% this morning, pointing to a mixed open on Wall Street after the long weekend as rising oil prices keep investors cautious.

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday amid intensifying attacks in the Middle East, with Brent crude trading above $98 a barrel and WTI crude nearing $94 a barrel. Saudi Arabia said on Tuesday that fresh attacks halted operations at several energy facilities in the kingdom's south. Iran-backed Houthi militants said they once again targeted the kingdom's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery and facilities supplying the domestic market. Meanwhile, robust Chinese buying added to tight conditions in oil markets.

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Concerns about higher energy prices pushed bond yields higher and curbed risk appetite. The 10-year T-note yield rose one basis point to 4.81% on Tuesday.

On the positive side, AI optimism lifted chip and AI infrastructure stocks in pre-market trading, helping push Nasdaq 100 futures into positive territory.

This holiday-shortened week, market participants are looking ahead to key U.S. inflation data and an earnings report from debt-loaded AI hyperscaler Oracle.

In Friday's trading session, Wall Street's major equity averages ended mostly lower after a stronger-than-expected jobs report fueled expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates soon. Software stocks sank, with Autodesk (ADSK) falling over -8% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 and Adobe (ADBE) dropping more than -6%. Also, shares of credit reporting agencies slumped after U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte took aim at their pricing and reliance on FICO scores in mortgage lending, with Fair Isaac (FICO) tumbling over -16% and Equifax (EFX) sliding more than -6%. In addition, Lululemon Athletica (LULU) cratered over -17% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the activewear retailer posted weaker-than-expected Q2 revenue and cut its full-year guidance. On the bullish side, chip and AI infrastructure stocks rallied, with Sandisk (SNDK) jumping over +11% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and KLA Corp. (KLAC) climbing more than +7%.

The Labor Department's report released on Friday showed that nonfarm payrolls rose by 162K in August. That figure was roughly three times higher than economists had forecast and marked a sharp increase from the revised 21K job gain in July. Also, the U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in August, in line with expectations. In addition, U.S. August average hourly earnings rose +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y, compared with expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y.

The strong jobs report prompted traders to ramp up bets that the Fed will raise interest rates this month. The odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting currently stand at 60.6%, up from 52% before the report's release.

"[The August jobs report] lends support to the hawkish camp, but stops shy of making a definitive case for a rate hike on September 16," according to Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets. "While the market-implied probability of a rate hike this month has increased, the employment data will play a secondary role to inflation."

The U.S. consumer inflation report for August will be the main highlight this week, providing the final piece of the puzzle for Fed officials ahead of their meeting next week. Economists expect the consumer price index to rise +0.4% m/m in August, accelerating from the previous month, partly due to higher gasoline prices. However, the annual headline inflation rate is forecast to hold steady at +3.4%. Core inflation is expected to increase by a more modest +0.2% m/m, bringing the annual rate down to +2.4%, its lowest level since 2021. "A hot inflation report on the back of the strong jobs data would likely tip the balance in favor of a hike, while any moderation in core CPI would push back bets to December," according to XM's Raffi Boyadjian. The U.S. August Producer Price Index will also attract close attention, offering a glimpse into price pressures from the wholesale side of the economy. Other noteworthy data releases include Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index (preliminary).

Market participants will also closely watch earnings from debt-loaded AI hyperscaler Oracle (ORCL) this week, whose results serve as a barometer for the state of AI financing. The company's AI infrastructure buildout and cloud growth will be major areas of focus. Software giant Adobe (ADBE), online vehicle auction company Copart (CPRT), grocery giant Kroger (KR), and department store chain Macy's (M) are among the other notable companies scheduled to report quarterly results.

U.S. central bankers are in a blackout period ahead of the September 15-16 policy meeting, so they are prohibited from making public comments on the economic outlook or monetary policy this week. Fed policy limits the extent to which FOMC participants and staff can speak publicly or grant interviews during blackout periods.

Elsewhere, Apple (AAPL) will hold its main event of the year on Wednesday, where it is expected to unveil several new products, including the highly anticipated iPhone Ultra, its first foldable device. This will be John Ternus's first launch event as CEO after he succeeded Tim Cook on September 1st.

Today, investors will focus on the Fed's Consumer Credit report. Economists expect U.S. consumer credit to increase by $11.9 billion in July, compared with a $14.2 billion increase in June.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.81%, up +0.19%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.18% this morning as sentiment soured after Brent crude neared $100 a barrel, while heavyweight Novartis tumbled following a second drug-development setback. Healthcare stocks led the declines on Tuesday, dragged down by a more than -9% drop in Novartis (NOVN.Z.IX) after the company said an experimental neuromuscular drug failed to meet the primary endpoint in a late-stage clinical trial. Bank stocks also slumped. A drop in German exports added to the downbeat mood. Germany's statistics agency said Tuesday that monthly exports fell in July for the first time since January, slowing an emerging recovery in net trade that supported the country's economic growth in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, Eurozone bond yields held near multi-year highs on Tuesday as investors weighed a range of conflicting signals ahead of this week's European Central Bank meeting. The ECB is widely expected to raise the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on Thursday to curb energy-driven inflation, which would mark its second rate hike of the cycle. The key question for investors will be whether the ECB keeps the door open for a third rate hike later in the year.

Germany's Exports data was released today.

The German July Exports fell -0.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of no change m/m.

Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China's Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.20%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -1.70%.

China's Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, buoyed by gains in farming and energy stocks and robust trade data. Agriculture-related stocks climbed on Monday after the central government announced a plan to increase funding for rural revitalization. Energy stocks also advanced as escalating tensions in the Middle East drove oil prices higher. In addition, sentiment was supported by the country's strong trade data. The General Administration of Customs said on Tuesday that China's export growth picked up in August, supported by robust overseas demand for high-tech and AI-related products, with exports remaining a key source of strength for the world's second-largest economy amid weak domestic demand. The country's imports also surged last month. As a result, the trade surplus widened 6% from July to $119.1 billion. Barclays economists said that China's exports are likely to remain a key driver of growth in the second half of the year. However, the benchmark index's gains were limited as technology stocks slumped following Monday's rebound. Investor attention now turns to China's key inflation gauges for August, scheduled for release on Wednesday. Economists expect China's consumer inflation to accelerate in August after slowing to a six-month low in July, while producer prices are also forecast to pick up. Higher prices for food, gold, chips, and AI-related products likely pushed up both consumer and producer prices in August, though underlying consumer inflation remains subdued, according to Nomura economists.

The Chinese August Trade Balance came in at $119.1 billion, stronger than expectations of $118.6 billion.

The Chinese August Exports surged +25.0% y/y, in line with expectations.

The Chinese August Imports jumped +28.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +30.0% y/y.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply lower today, pressured by a stronger yen. The Japanese currency extended Monday's gains to reach its strongest level against the dollar since February in Asian trading, supported by expectations of faster rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and prospects for investment inflows into Japanese assets. Export-oriented automobile and electronics stocks led the declines on Tuesday. A stronger yen typically weighs on exporter shares as it reduces the value of overseas earnings when companies repatriate them to Japan. Sentiment was also dampened by rising oil prices amid uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, Japanese government bonds rose on Tuesday as the yen's appreciation was viewed as helping to curb inflationary pressures in Japan. On the economic front, revised government data showed on Tuesday that Japan's economy expanded at a slightly quicker pace than initially estimated in the second quarter, supported by a smaller decline in corporate spending. Separately, data showed that Japan's real wages, adjusted for inflation excluding rents, climbed 2.4% in July from a year earlier, marking the biggest increase since May 2021 and the seventh straight month of gains. Taken together, Tuesday's data strengthen the case for the Bank of Japan to proceed with a widely anticipated rate hike this month. Investor focus for the remainder of the week is on a speech by BOJ board member Kazuyuki Masu, the final scheduled appearance by a policymaker before the BOJ's September meeting. With markets almost fully pricing in a rate hike by the BOJ next week, investors will watch for signals on the pace of further moves. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +46.61% to 32.05.

The Japanese Q2 GDP Annualized was revised upward to +1.4% q/q from the initial estimate of +1.1% q/q.

The Japanese August Economy Watchers Current Index came in at 46.4, stronger than expectations of 46.3.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Chip and AI infrastructure stocks advanced in pre-market trading amid AI optimism. Sandisk (SNDK), Micron Technology (MU), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) were up over +1%.

Intel (INTC) climbed over +4% in pre-market trading after Intel Foundry and ASML highlighted further progress in bringing High Numerical Aperture Extreme Ultraviolet lithography into production and advancing technologies to accelerate its adoption. Also, Northland upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market Perform with a $120 price target.

Airlines and other travel stocks fell in pre-market trading as oil prices climbed, with Alaska Air Group (ALK) and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) dropping more than -1%.

Peloton (PTON) slid over -5% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $4.50.

Energy stocks advanced in pre-market trading, tracking higher oil prices. ConocoPhillips (COP), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and ExxonMobil (XOM) were up over +1%.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today's U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - September 8th

Casey's General Stores (CASY), GameStop (GME), ServiceTitan (TTAN), Braze (BRZE), National Beverage (FIZZ), ABM Industries (ABM), United Natural Foods (UNFI), InnovAge Holding (INNV), Mission Produce (AVO), Goldgroup Mining (GORO), Evolution Petroleum (EPM).

On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com