Oracle Yıkıcı Bulut Jokeridir: Satın Alıyor musunuz?

Oracle Is The Disruptive Cloud Wildcard: Do You Buy It?

Alex Sirois

Wed, September 9, 2026 at 2:43 PM GMT+3 5 min read

Quick Read

Oracle (ORCL) trades at a forward P/E of 19 with $638B in booked backlog against $90B in FY27 guided revenue, making it a Buy at $162.
NVDA dependency, $124.7B in debt, and -$23.7B in free cash flow make Oracle's capex-fueled AI buildout the biggest risk to the bull case.
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At $162.52, Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) is a Buy. The stock has become the year's most polarizing cloud name after shedding roughly a third of its value while its backlog exploded to levels no software company has ever printed.

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Oracle sells databases, enterprise applications, and cloud infrastructure, and it now competes directly with AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud while also renting its database into all three via Oracle Multicloud. What changed the story is AI. Training and inference customers signed $67 billion in infrastructure contracts in a single quarter, pushing remaining performance obligations to $638B, up 363% YoY.

The market's problem is what feeding that demand costs. FY26 capex hit $55.66B against operating cash flow of $31.98B, producing free cash flow of roughly -$23.69B. That is the wildcard.

Why the Backlog Reframes the Multiple

Bulls point to a business that just guided FY27 revenue to $90B with non-GAAP EPS of $8.05, a jump investors rarely see at this scale. Cloud infrastructure revenue grew 93% YoY in Q4, and the Multicloud database business was up 404%.

Valuation looks reasonable against that trajectory. Shares trade at a forward P/E of 19 with a PEG of 0.871, and analysts have quietly raised FY28 EPS estimates to $10.9676. CFO Hilary Maxson reiterated a long-term revenue CAGR of plus 31% through FY30, anchored by RPO that management said provides "exceptional visibility."

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Why the Capex Bill Terrifies the Bears

The bear case is arithmetic. Oracle plans to raise around $40 billion in FY27 through debt and equity, including a $20B at-the-market equity issuance. Non-current debt already climbed to $124.7B, and interest expense reached $4,598,000,000 in FY26.

Concentration risk is real. A small number of hyperscale AI customers underwrite the RPO, GPU sourcing depends on NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), and gross margins are expected to step down in FY27 as new data centers ramp (the same buildout, power, cooling, and networking, that we profiled in a free report on seven AI infrastructure names beyond the chipmakers: here). Q2 FY26 showed how quickly sentiment flips: shares fell roughly 13% on a revenue miss despite an EPS beat.

Why Some Investors Would Rather Wait a Quarter

The hold argument is timing. FY27 gross margin compression is baked into guidance, and management expects results to accelerate in the second half as megawatts come online. Waiting one or two quarters lets investors watch renewal rates on the 49% of Q4 GPU customers who renewed and confirm that Abilene, Shackleford, and Saline sites hit their delivery dates before committing.

What the Stock and the Street Actually Show

Oracle currently trades at $162.52 against a mean analyst target of $242.05, implying meaningful upside if the target holds. Targets remain one data point among many. Of 44 analysts, the breakdown is 8 Strong Buy, 28 Buy, 7 Hold, and 1 Sell.

Performance tells the pain story. ORCL is down 15.81% year to date and 31.07% over one year, while SPY is up 12.32% YTD and 18.05% over one year. The one-week bounce of 15% coincides with renewed interest in the OpenAI ecosystem.

Why $162 Is the Right Entry for the Cloud Wildcard

At $162.52, Oracle is a Buy. Here is why.

The path to appreciation is specific. Oracle has already booked the revenue. RPO of $638B against FY27 guided revenue of $90B means the remaining question is execution and delivery. Every megawatt that comes online at Abilene and Shackleford converts backlog into recognized revenue, and management targets an OCI 30% to 40% margin profile with steady-state ROIC in the high 20s.

Entry point matters. A forward P/E of 19 on a business growing cloud revenue at triple digits sits well below where stretched AI infrastructure names trade. The 50-day moving average of $139.84 sits well below the 200-day of $168.78, meaning the stock is climbing out of a deep hole rather than defending a high.

Invalidation is equally clear. If FY27 free cash flow stays deeply negative into FY28, if renewal rates slip below the 49% Q4 mark, or if a hyperscale customer defers a contract, the thesis breaks. Watch the November-ending quarter for an earnings report near the $1.8880 EPS consensus and Q1 cloud growth in the 58%-64% guided range.

Oracle at $162 gives investors a booked-backlog AI infrastructure story at a growth-adjusted multiple the hyperscalers stopped offering three years ago.

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