Howmet Aerospace Stock Is Sliding on SpaceX Fears. Here’s Why That Could Be a Buying Opportunity.

Patrick Sanders

Mon, September 7, 2026 at 9:30 PM GMT+3 4 min read

Howmet Aerospace Inc_ on screen in front of business webpage_ By Timon

Howmet Aerospace (HWM) appears to be in trouble, but is the concern overblown? The maker of aero-engine and industrial gas turbine components has seen its stock fall by 11% since mid-August after Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) announced plans to manufacture gas-turbine components internally.

The components, including cast blades and vanes for natural gas turbines, would support a 20-gigawatt power installation for AI data centers in Texas that is expected to be completed by the end of next year.

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Elon Musk, the CEO of SpaceX and Tesla (TSLA), has said the casting has become a significant bottleneck, and bringing the processing in-house could shave 18 months off the time to complete gas turbines.

While the market seems to be indicating that SpaceX's plans are a threat to Howmet, some analysts have another take. Citi Research said in a note that Musk's position only amplifies the demand and scarcity for turbine-manufacturing capacity. The bank believes that SpaceX will continue to purchase from the existing industrial gas turbine supply chain, and its announcement reinforces demand for Howmet's products.

And Bernstein analysts also spoke supportively of Howmet, saying that SpaceX's efforts to bring production in-house are motivated by a desire to control its supply chain, rather than being unhappy with Howmet's work. It said SpaceX is unlikely to duplicate the entire manufacturing process and is not expected to compete with existing suppliers.

Howmet has seen strong growth in its gas turbine business, and the market has plenty of tailwinds. Is this a buying opportunity for Howmet stock, which is now trading more than 15% off its all-time high?

About Howmet Stock

Howmet Aerospace is a Pittsburgh-based company that makes engine products such as airfoils and gas-turbine products and engineered structures such as aero ingots and mill products. The company also makes many fastening systems for aircraft and industrial needs and makes forged aluminum wheels for heavy-duty trucks. It has a market cap of $101 billion.

Shares are up 46% in the last year, despite the recent weakness, which by far outperforms the 15% return of the S&P 500 ($SPX) industrials sector. But that strength comes with a cost—Howmet has a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 48.1, which is about 5% higher than its five-year forward P/E mean.

Howmet offers a low dividend of $0.14 per share on a quarterly basis, which equates to a dividend yield of 0.2%. The payout ratio is only 10.8%, so Howmet has plenty to offer should it begin offering a larger dividend. The company has increased the payout for five consecutive years.

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Howmet Beats on Earnings

Howmet reported second-quarter earnings on Aug. 6. Revenue was $2.54 billion, up 24% from a year ago, and net income was $534 million versus $407 million a year ago. Howmet reported earnings of $1.33 per share, which was better than the $1.00 per share the company had a year ago and beat analysts' expectations of $1.23 per share.

The company saw strong growth in its engine products business, which had revenue of $1.37 billion, up 32% from last year. Fastening systems had 37% growth to $589 million.

"Howmet is well positioned, with all our major markets in growth mode," CEO John Plant said.

Howmet closed its $1.8 billion purchase of Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing in April from Stanley Black & Decker (SWK). The business will be integrated into Howmet's existing aero-fastener business and is expected to help the company increase its market share for military and commercial aircraft parts.

The company issued third-quarter guidance for $2.575 billion in revenue and $1.35 per share. It raised its full-year guidance to revenue of $10.05 billion, up $400 million, and EPS of $5.27, up $0.33 per share.

What Do Analysts Expect for HWM Stock?

Sentiment is growing for HWM stock, with 20 of 23 analysts who cover the stock giving it "Buy" ratings. The other three have "Hold" ratings, but none of them suggest selling Howmet's stock.

Shares have a mean price target of $332.57, which represents a possible upside of 27% from the current price. SpaceX's announcement didn't faze Scott Deuschle of Deutsche Bank, who reiterated his price target of $343 and his buy rating on Sept. 2.

The market appears to be overreacting to SpaceX and its plans to bring some gas turbine production in-house. Howmet Aerospace shares should recover quickly, making the current dip an appealing opportunity to buy.