Oil Prices Are Once Again on the Brink of $100

Oil Prices Are Once Again on the Brink of $100

Tom Kool

Tue, September 8, 2026 at 6:13 PM GMT+3 7 min read

Oil prices surge toward $100 as Houthi attacks, U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers and renewed Middle East tensions rattle markets.

Europe's Gas Prices Surge as Storage Fears Return

- European natural gas prices have jumped to €75 per MWh ($25.5 per MMBtu), the highest since 2022 and more than double their level a year ago, as the continent's low inventories spark fears of winter supply shocks.

- Since the Al Nuaman LNG carrier delivered its cargo to Rovigo, Italy, in early April, the EU has not imported any Qatari LNG, equivalent to 8% of its 2025 imports.

- European gas inventories are currently 66% full, with market watchers seeing Germany and the Netherlands as particularly vulnerable ahead of the winter season, with stocks at 54% and 48%, respectively.

- Worsening Europe's gas import bill, LNG prices delivered into NWE continue to rise along with Asia's JKM, reaching $24.5 per MMBtu this week, with barely any backwardation between October and December.

- Six-month-high prices sap the Old Continent's LNG buying, with September LNG imports expected to remain at August readings (7.5 million tonnes), down 13% year-over-year.

Market Movers

- French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) announced that its planned 6 mtpa Papua LNG project is making 'decisive steps' towards an FID whilst it transferred operatorship to US major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM).

- London-based energy giant Shell (LON:SHEL) is reportedly considering divesting all or part of its 72% stake in the Bintulu gas-to-liquids plant, potentially garnering as much as $1 billion.

- Canadian oil producer Tamarack Valley Energy (TSO:TVE) agreed to merge with Headwater Exploration (TSO:HWX) in an all-stock deal worth $7.2 billion, creating the first-ever pure-play Clearwater producer with net output of 80,000 boe/day.

- UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) has appointed lan Tyler as permanent chair, having been appointed interim chair in May 2026 after his predecessor Albert Manifold was abruptly dismissed.

- Italian oil major ENI (BIT:ENI) has signed a contract for the development of the giant Junin-5 heavy oil field in Venezuela, taking operatorship for the next 25 years.

Tuesday, September 08, 2026

Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure (and their threats of potential military incursions) as well as US strikes on Iranian oil tankers have lifted oil prices above $99 per barrel, the highest in three months. With Israeli-Lebanese tensions flaring up again, it would only take one bellicose Trump message to push oil back into triple-digit territory.

OPEC+ Holds October Targets Steady. OPEC+ left October 2026 production quotas unchanged after completing the rollback of its 1.65 million b/d voluntary cut in September, shifting focus toward a review of 2027 output baselines as the Iran conflict has capped the group's ability to ramp up output.

Trump Threatens Trade Embargoes if Fed Holds Rates. President Trump warned he could impose a trade embargo on countries running surpluses against the U.S. unless the Federal Reserve cuts its 3.5-3.75% policy rate, potentially targeting major trading partners such as the EU, Canada and Mexico.

Iran Threatens Gulf Exclusion Zone. Iran said it plans to establish a new maritime exclusion zone in the Gulf, expanding it all the way to the blockade perimeter of the US Navy, potentially claiming the UAE port of Fujairah and Oman's Sohar as it warned the White House of its new ballistic missiles.

Houthi Strikes Disrupt Saudi Aramco. Houthi missile and drone attacks forced the shutdown of operations at several Saudi energy facilities, including new strikes on the 400,000 b/d Jazan refinery and wounded 73 people, an unprecedented escalation of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure.

Dangote Targets $14 Billion Expansion. Ahead of its upcoming IPO, Nigeria's Dangote refinery disclosed that it plans to invest $14.3 billion to double processing capacity 1.4mn b/d by 2029, seeing the $1.6 billion IPO as a next step towards self-financing after posting a $1.8 billion profit in the first half of 2026.

China Crude Imports Rebound as Beijing Lifts Ban. China's August crude imports rose 6.2% month-on-month to 8.93 million b/d, marking a 2nd consecutive monthly jump as Beijing eased its fuel export ban, while product exports jumped 29% from July despite ongoing weakness in domestic fuel demand.

Milei Eyes Escalation of Falklands Dispute. Argentina's government said it will file criminal complaints against Navitas Petroleum (TLV:NVPT) and its executives over their activity in the Falkland Islands, intensifying pressure on the 50,000 b/d Sea Lion project ahead of its planned 2028 commissioning.

Congo Tightens Grip on Critical Minerals Data. The DRC plans to launch a state-controlled geological databank by end-2026, giving Kinshasa greater oversight of exploration in a country that holds 6 million tonnes of cobalt reserves but remains only 20% explored, boosting control over future cobalt supply.

Qatar LNG Exits Hormuz After Two-Month Hiatus. Qatar's first LNG cargo since July has successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz, with the Al Marrouna carrier bound for Pakistan, signaling a tentative recovery in exports from a supplier that typically accounts for around 20% of global LNG trade.

Ukraine Hits Ryazan Refinery Again. Ukraine reported a drone strike on Rosneft's 342,000 b/d Ryazan refinery, sparking a fire at the site and marking the most significant hit in September to date, just as Russia's crude processing rates started to rebound after falling to 3.9 million b/dbin July, a 21-year low.

Copper Hits Record as Global Stocks Shrink. The LME's benchmark three-month copper contract climbed to a record of $14,617 per tonne this week as inventories outside the U.S. tightened sharply, with 51% of LME stocks slated for withdrawal and SHFE stock inventories down 85% since March.

Aramco Delays Cargoes to Europe. Saudi Aramco has reportedly delayed some September oil cargoes to European buyers despite nominations rising to 1.3 million b/d, suggesting Houthi missile strikes in the Red Sea are disrupting exports, with August loadings at a mere 2.2 million b/d.

Sri Lanka Eyes the Doubling of Refining Capacity. Sri Lanka's Ceylon Petroleum Corp plans to double refining capacity to 100,000 b/d within four years and will seek a joint-venture partner through a tender process, seeking to end its dependence on fuel imports in the wake of the U.S.-Iran war.

China Car Sales Slide as Exports Surge. China's passenger vehicle sales fell 24% year-on-year to 1.54 million units in August, the 11th straight year-on-year drop, as carmakers are increasingly relying on demand overseas, with exports jumping 78% to 888,000 vehicles, accounting for 38% of all sales.

Brazil Counts on Pre-Salt Windfall. Brazil expects to raise 22.4 billion reais ($4.4 billion) from a special pre-salt oil auction in 2027, with the proceeds exceeding its projected $3.6-billion primary surplus and forming a key pillar of the government's plan to deliver its first fiscal surplus since 2022.

China Stalls Rio Purchases Amid Iron Ore Talks. China's state-backed CMRG has reportedly instructed steel mills to postpone purchases of Rio Tinto's Pilbara iron ore during contract negotiations, a move that could affect supplies representing nearly 20% of China's annual iron ore imports.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

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