Freeport-McMoRan Has Ripped 44% in 2026. What Would It Take to Get FCX Stock Up to $100?

Freeport-McMoRan Has Ripped 44% in 2026. What Would It Take to Get FCX Stock Up to $100?

David Moadel

Mon, September 7, 2026 at 4:50 PM GMT+3 6 min read

Quick Read

• FCX climbed 44% YTD to $73, and applying a peer multiple to its high 2027 EPS estimate of $5.69 puts shares near $100.

• SCCO and TECK both surged 45% YTD alongside FCX, a tight cluster signaling commodity momentum rather than company-specific execution.

• Each 10-cent copper move generates $390M in FCX EBITDA, making LME price the dominant variable in any $100 bull thesis.

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Copper's 2026 rally has turned the sector's largest producers into what looks like a single trade, with year-to-date returns clustered inside a tight band. That's the signature of a commodity move rather than of company execution, and it frames the debate over whether Freeport-McMoRan stock can push toward the $100 mark.

Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) shares closed Friday at $72.73, up 44% year to date (YTD). Meanwhile, Southern Copper (NYSE:SCCO) stock finished the week at $198.76, up 45% YTD in a near-identical trajectory. Teck Resources (NYSE:TECK) stock ended Friday at $69.10, up 45% YTD, rounding out the tight cluster.

Notably, the Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:COPX) has climbed 27% YTD, trailing the three majors as its developer and small-miner holdings failed to keep pace. For the broader context, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 13% YTD, giving the copper trio a wide lead on the broad tape.

Copper Price Did the Heavy Lifting

The tight clustering among Freeport-McMoRan, Southern Copper, and Teck Resources reflects a commodity-driven tape. LME copper averaged $5.93 per pound year to date through June and closed at $6.30 per pound on July 22, per Freeport-McMoRan's Q2 2026 call. Teck reported LME copper up 40% year over year (YoY) in Q2 2026, echoing the same tailwind across the peer set.

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The U.S. COMEX benchmark traded at a 2% premium to LME pricing, adding to Freeport-McMoRan's revenue mix given its Arizona and New Mexico footprint. Southern Copper stock rides the same wave, with Q2 2026 revenue up 40.6% YoY to $4.29 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin at 66.6%.

Freeport-McMoRan's own sensitivity math is telling. Management modeled annual EBITDA at roughly $13 billion at $5 copper and $20 billion at $7 copper, with each 10-cent move worth $390 million in EBITDA. That leverage is why the copper price, more than any Grasberg surprise, offers the cleanest path to $100.

Grasberg Reversal and the Q2 Turn

The Freeport-McMoRan story split in half this year. A September 2025 Grasberg mud rush constrained Indonesian output and revised 2026 copper sales guidance down to 3.1 billion pounds from 3.4 billion, weighing on the shares into spring. The July quarter reset the narrative.

Block Cave production doubled during Q2, with April averaging 34,000 tons per day and June averaging 69,000. Management guided the district to 65% of full capacity in the second half of 2026, 80% by mid-2027, and full capacity by the end of 2027. Freeport-McMoRan also nudged its 2026 unit net cash cost estimate to $1.90 per pound, slightly below the April estimate.

Second-half 2026 copper sales are expected to be over 20% higher than first-half sales, with 2027 copper sales up more than 20% compared with 2026. That volume ramp compounds any copper-price tailwind and shapes the setup into year-end.

What a Move to $100 Actually Requires

Freeport-McMoRan stock trades near the top of its 52-week range, with a 52-week high of $80.24 and a forward P/E ratio of 18x. The consensus 2027 EPS estimate for the company sits at $4.1354, with a high estimate of $5.69. Applying a peer-typical forward multiple to the upper end of that range gets FCX shares into the $100 zone without heroics.

The push higher likely requires copper closer to the $7 case, a smoother Grasberg ramp, and continued discipline on unit costs. Freeport-McMoRan's $5 billion buyback with $2.9 billion remaining as of April 22, 2026, and its leach program targeting 300 million incremental pounds in 2026 and ramping to 800 million per year by 2030, are the internal levers.

Additionally, Freeport-McMoRan's Baghdad expansion adds another catalyst, with a preliminary capital estimate near $4.5 billion and economics supported at $4 per pound copper. A final investment decision was expected in the second half of 2026, potentially unlocking a second U.S. mega-mine behind Morenci. Southern Copper stock, backed by an analyst target price of $169.06, and Teck Resources shares, with a target of $54.30, offer benchmarks for how the market values the peer group.

What to Watch Next

The next Freeport-McMoRan earnings report will test whether Q2 momentum in Grasberg output and unit costs carries into the seasonally back-loaded second half. Copper's tape, driven by tight concentrate markets, AI data center demand, and grid investment, remains the dominant variable. Traders can watch for LME price action and Grasberg quarterly production updates as near-term catalysts.

Investors weighing their exposure should treat FCX stock as high-beta commodity paper, with a beta of 1.4 and a history of sharp drawdowns when copper cracks. Moderate position sizing and a plan for copper reversals belong in any thesis that reaches for $100. The bull case is real, yet it runs through the copper price far more than through anything Freeport-McMoRan does at Grasberg.

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