Nvidia’s Profits Could Rival a Country’s GDP by 2029
Rich DupreySun, September 6, 2026 at 7:30 PM GMT+3 5 min read
Quick Read
-
Wall Street's 64% EPS growth forecast puts NVDA on track for $851 billion in annual net income by 2029, shattering Aramco's all-time corporate profit record.
-
Jensen Huang says the entire supply chain is running flat out, backed by a $2 trillion cloud backlog and $1.3 trillion in projected 2027 hyperscaler capex.
-
Just released. Our analysts combed the entire stock market and named the ten best stocks to buy right now, and NVIDIA made the cut. Enter your email to see the other nine names and why NVDA earned its spot. The report is free. Enter your email and see the full list.
$851 Billion Profit Projection
$851 billion. That is the approximate annual net income NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) would generate three years out if Wall Street's forecast of a 64% compounded EPS growth rate plays through, applied to a trailing-12-month base of roughly $193 billion in net income and $7.91 in TTM diluted EPS. For context, Saudi Aramco holds the record for the largest annual profit any company has ever reported, at $161.1 billion in 2022. This is a projection based on analyst compounding assumptions rather than issued company guidance.
What It Means Operationally
The projected walk is stepwise: Year 1 EPS $13.0 (about $316 billion in net income), Year 2 $21.3 (about $519 billion), and Year 3 $34.9 (about $851 billion). Back into revenue at NVIDIA's current profitability profile and Year 3 sales land near $1.35 trillion, roughly 4 to 4.5 times the current trailing-12-month revenue of about $303 billion.
The base is grounded in reported results. NVIDIA's most recent quarter (Q2 FY2027, reported August 26, 2026) delivered $96.22 billion in revenue, up 105.85% year over year, with net income of $59.688 billion, up 125.9%. Operating margin ran 60.38%, net margin 55.6%, and return on equity 101.5%. Full-year FY2026 net income was $120.067 billion, up from $4.368 billion in fiscal 2023. The compounding runway is what makes a Year 3 number that eclipses Aramco even conceivable.
Free Report, Just Released
Why NVDA Made Our Top 10 List
24/7 Wall St has helped investors make money for over two decades, and our top analysts just finished ranking the definitive Top 10 Stocks To Buy Now. Not the ten biggest companies. Not the ten everyone is arguing about. The ten best stocks to buy right now.
And NVDA made the cut. See who else did.
The report is free, and you can see why we think each stock is a top investment today.
Enter Your Email and See the Ten →
What that means is, if Nvidia reported a total annual revenue of $1.35 trillion in 2029, it would rank as the 18th-largest economy in the world when evaluated directly against national GDP figures. It would place the chipmaker just below Saudi Arabia's GDP of $1.45 trillion, but ahead of Switzerland at $1.29 trillion.
Market Reaction
Shares closed at $230.36 on September 4, 2026. NVDA is up 23.67% year to date, 34.37% over the last year, and 911.71% over five years. The stock carries a P/E of 46 and a market capitalization of $5.5625 trillion.
Bull Case
The demand picture behind the projection is the argument. Data Center revenue reached $89.023 billion in Q2, up 117% year over year. Management said cloud industry backlog now exceeds $2 trillion, with top-five hyperscaler capex projected at nearly $800 billion in 2026 and $1.3 trillion in 2027. NVIDIA's revenue opportunity per gigawatt has stepped from roughly $18 billion on Hopper to $25 billion on Blackwell to $40 billion on Vera Rubin.
The customer commitments back the ramp. AWS is deploying an additional 2 million GPUs through Q2 FY2029. OpenAI has committed to approximately 12 gigawatts of NVIDIA compute through 2030. Neocloud partners are expected to exit the year with eight gigawatts of installed capacity, up from about three gigawatts at the end of 2025. All of that compute has to be powered, cooled, and networked by somebody, which is why we put seven of the picks-and-shovels suppliers behind the buildout in a free AI infrastructure report. Management guided fiscal 2028 revenue growth to approximately 70% year over year and called the outlook supply constrained, with Jensen Huang saying "Our entire supply chain is challenged. And everybody is really running flat out."
Analyst sentiment supports the compounding thesis. Fiscal 2028 EPS estimates have moved from $12.6011 ninety days ago to $15.4043, with 52 analysts covering the fiscal year and zero downward revisions in the trailing 30 days. Analyst sentiment breaks 95 bullish to 2 bearish. Q3 FY27 revenue is guided to $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, excluding China Data Center compute. Capital return remains active: NVIDIA returned about $26.0 billion to shareholders in Q2 with $99.0 billion remaining under the buyback authorization.
Bottom Line
For long-term holders, the $851 billion projection reframes the debate. It is what NVIDIA's own math produces if the current earnings trajectory and analyst assumptions hold through 2029. The next test is Q3, where management has already committed to $108 billion in revenue, followed by the dividend payment on October 1, 2026 (record date September 10, 2026). If Vera Rubin ramps as promised and hyperscaler capex holds, the record book for corporate profitability may need a new binding.
Got $1,000? NVDA Made Our Top 10 List. Here's Who Else Did
If you have cash sitting in your account right now, give this two minutes. After more than two decades of helping investors beat the market, our top analysts at 24/7 Wall St. put together a definitive report on the Top 10 Stocks To Buy Today. And NVDA was one of them.
They combed the entire market. It's not 10 ideas, not 10 stocks everyone is talking about, it's what their research points to as the 10 best stocks to buy right now, and it's free. Read more here and see which stocks made the list -->>
Contact editorial@247wallst.com for any questions or corrections.
Yorumlar (0)
Giriş yaparak yorum yazabilirsin.
İlk yorumu sen yaz.