Bitcoin's $80,000 breakout failed after a blowout jobs report

Bitcoin's $80,000 breakout failed after a blowout jobs report

Jared Blikre

Fri, September 4, 2026 at 11:19 PM GMT+3 4 min read

• BTC-USD +0.44%
• DX-Y.NYB -0.02%

Bitcoin nearly crossed the Rubicon. Then Friday's jobs report sent the bulls backward.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged over 5% Thursday, then climbed as high as $82,000 and change Friday morning — less than $1,000 from the resistance that has capped it since February — before reversing below $80,000.

Friday brought the counterpunch.

Employers added 162,000 jobs in August, nearly triple expectations, while June and July payrolls were revised higher by a combined 55,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%.

The report strengthened the labor side of the case for a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve, even as cooler wage growth left inflation as the next big hurdle. Bitcoin, gold, and many of Thursday's high-beta winners turned lower as shorter-term yields and the dollar rose.

A day earlier, Waller had pushed markets in exactly the other direction.

The Fed governor opened the door to leaving interest rates unchanged at this month's meeting if inflation continues to cool.

Read more: How jobs, inflation, and the Fed are all related

Index futures and Treasurys climbed after his remarks Thursday morning while yields and the dollar fell. The odds of a September rate hike dropped to roughly 52% from 63% a day earlier, according to fed funds futures. The dollar posted its biggest drop since Aug. 19.

Sound familiar?

That was the day the bitcoin debasement trade took off after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled planned buybacks of some longer-dated Treasurys. Bitcoin, gold, and bonds surged as the dollar fell that day as well.

This time, Waller provided the spark.

Recent inflation data finally shows "some signs of disinflation," Waller said. If the improvement continues, he said he would support holding rates steady. A hot August inflation report could still put a hike back on the table.

In case the message wasn't clear enough, Waller loosened up during the Q&A.

"I'm going to paraphrase John Lennon here," he said. "Give disinflation a chance."

Investors did — for a day.

Strategy (MSTR) soared 18%, its best day in nearly seven months. Robinhood (HOOD) jumped 16% for its biggest gain in over a year, while Coinbase (COIN) climbed nearly 10%, its best day in six months.

And the enthusiasm quickly escaped crypto.

Palantir (PLTR) rallied nearly 8%, while the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) gained 4.5%, extending the comeback in some of Wall Street's riskiest trades.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk had a great Thursday. SpaceX (SPCX) and Tesla (TSLA) each gained more than 5%, collectively adding nearly $200 billion in market capitalization.

But Thursday's move wasn't a space rally. Most other space stocks lagged far behind SpaceX, putting the two Musk companies squarely in the day's broader rush into high-beta names.

Friday took some of Thursday's air back out. Coinbase (COIN) and Palantir (PLTR) both fell more than 4%, and Tesla (TSLA) sank nearly 6%, more than erasing Thursday's gain. Bitcoin lost 2%, while Strategy (MSTR), Robinhood (HOOD), and SpaceX (SPCX) gave back smaller pieces of their Thursday rallies.

Even so, much of the trade survived the week: Robinhood finished up 17%, Strategy 12%, SpaceX more than 4%, and Coinbase and bitcoin just over 3%.

Friday showed exactly why $83,000 was the line to watch.

Bitcoin came within roughly $700 of that ceiling before reversing. A sustained move above roughly $83,000 is still what would finally clear the range that has contained it since February.

Hardika Singh, who works with Fundstrat's Tom Lee, recently offered another sign to watch whenever the next attempt comes.

"Watch the ethereum to bitcoin ratio," Singh told Yahoo Finance's Market Domination on Aug. 26.

"When that moves up, you should watch that."

Jared Blikre is the global markets and data editor for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @SPYJared or email him at jaredblikre@yahooinc.com.

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