ADP August 2026 private payrolls miss expectations at 38,000

ADP August 2026 private payrolls miss expectations at 38,000

Wed, September 2, 2026 at 3:57 PM GMT+3 2 min read

• ADP +0.84%
• ^DJI +1.18%

ADP put August private-sector job creation at 38,000, a figure that trailed the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 47,000 and represented the weakest monthly total since January, according to CNBC.

The August total also came in below the upwardly revised July figure of 46,000. ADP revised July's count from an initially reported 44,000, the company said.

Education and health services drove the bulk of hiring, adding 45,000 positions. Leisure and hospitality gained 16,000 jobs, and construction added 12,000. Most other sectors lost ground: manufacturing shed 17,000 positions, professional and business services fell by 16,000, and natural resources and mining as well as trade, transportation, and utilities each declined by 5,000.

Large employers accounted for nearly all the gains. Businesses with 500 or more on payroll contributed 34,000 of those positions, and the smallest firms — those with under 50 workers — added just 3,000. Medium establishments were flat on net.

By region, the Northeast led with 38,000 new positions, while the West declined by 8,000 and the South added just 3,000.

ADP's pay data showed little change for workers who remained in their jobs. Among that group, annual base pay growth held at 3.0% and gross pay — a broader measure that captures tips, bonuses, commissions, and similar compensation — came in at 4.4%, matching July's readings exactly. Across the entire private-sector workforce, base pay was up 3.2% and gross pay climbed 4.7%, the company said.

Beginning with Wednesday's release, ADP expanded its Pay Insights report to include base pay data alongside gross pay, added coverage of 56 U.S. metropolitan areas, and launched an interactive data platform. "Pay can tell us a lot about today's choppy hiring," ADP chief economist Dr. Nela Richardson said in a statement. "Once predictable wage growth has been overtaken by complexities of demographic change, persistent inflation, and AI's effects on jobs."

ADP lead data scientist Liv Wang noted in a statement that pay growth has been slowing for four years. "Among lower-paid workers in particular, base pay growth has lost momentum and now is slower than it was prior to the pandemic," Wang said.

The August labor market figures come against a backdrop of broader softness in hiring. Total hires slipped to 5.1 million in July and the quits rate fell to 1.9%, pointing to a market in which workers are less willing to leave their jobs voluntarily.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' August nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for release Friday. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones expect 53,000 jobs to have been added, with the unemployment rate seen remaining at 4.1%, according to CNBC.