Bitcoin to $5M a ‘Near Certainty,’ Says Crypto Author — Gary Cardone Slams Forecast as ‘Stupid’

Bitcoin to $5M a ‘Near Certainty,’ Says Crypto Author — Gary Cardone Slams Forecast as ‘Stupid’

Kurt Robson

Tue, September 1, 2026 at 5:32 PM GMT+3 6 min read

• BTC-USD -0.15%

Key Takeaways

• Jesse Tevelow placed the probability of Bitcoin reaching $5 million above 99%, citing fiat debasement, fixed BTC supply and continued adoption.

• Gary Cardone called the forecast a "pipe dream," arguing that its implied $105 trillion fully diluted valuation made it irresponsible.

• From $77,800, Bitcoin would need to rise by more than 6,300% to reach $5 million.

A viral debate over Bitcoin's long-term value has divided prominent crypto investors, with Bitcoin bulls arguing that a $5 million price is a "near certainty" while Gary Cardone dismissed the forecast as "stupid."

The dispute began when investor Fred Krueger predicted that Bitcoin would eventually become widely used as a medium of exchange after its price reached $5 million.

Cardone pushed back hard, describing the target as irresponsible and suggesting anyone promoting it was either misguided or trying to sell something.

Author Jesse Tevelow and BTC policy advocate Dennis Porter defended the possibility, arguing that critics were underestimating its fixed supply.

Gary Cardone Calls $5M Bitcoin Forecast a 'Pipe Dream'

Krueger sparked the debate by claiming that Bitcoin would become widely used for payments once it reached $5 million.

"You can wait for this before you invest, but you will basically miss the entire move," he wrote.

The prediction prompted a fierce response from Cardone, who said a $5 million target was a "pipe dream" that investors should not take seriously.

The entrepreneur noted that multiplying its 21 million maximum supply by $5 million produces a fully diluted valuation of $105 trillion.

Cardone argued that the figure was implausible compared with existing asset classes and said the forecast would value his own Bitcoin holdings at around $4.25 billion.

"Anyone suggesting that BTC is going to $5 million is either stupid and irresponsible or is trying to sell you something," he wrote.

Cardone added that people should avoid spending time on forecasts that appear fundamentally unrealistic.

Jesse Tevelow Says $5M BTC Is 'Above 99%' Certain

Jesse Tevelow, the author of the forthcoming book Life After Bitcoin, disagreed with Cardone and placed the probability of Bitcoin reaching $5 million above 99%.

"I would argue $5M is a near certainty," Tevelow wrote.

As governments create more dollars, Tevelow argued, the value of each dollar can decline relative to Bitcoin.

As a result, Bitcoin could soon become worth more in nominal dollar terms even without a corresponding increase in adoption.

He then added adoption to the equation.

Tevelow said an entire industry had spent 17 years building infrastructure intended to broaden Bitcoin's ownership and use.

Once people join the network, he argued, Bitcoin's incentive structure encourages them to support its continued expansion.

The author also disputed the assumption that Bitcoin's value must remain below that of gold or other established assets.

Tevelow also argued that investors struggle to understand how quickly new technologies can displace established assets.

Gold's thousands of years of monetary history, he said, did not prevent a digitally scarce asset from competing with it.

"I can't tell you when Bitcoin will hit $5M a coin," Tevelow acknowledged.

"…but I can confidently say—without a black swan or extinction event, it's much closer to a 100% certainty than an impossibility," he added.

Dennis Porter Says Critics Misunderstand Bitcoin's Scarcity

Satoshi Action Fund co-founder Dennis Porter offered another detailed defense of the $5 million target, going as far as to say it would reach $10 million.

Porter's position follows a peer-reviewed model he co-authored, which found Bitcoin could reach $5 million under aggressive scenarios involving continued institutional accumulation and declining liquid supply.

"There is no law of finance saying one unit of an asset cannot be worth hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars," Porter wrote on X.

Adding: "The important question is not the nominal price of one unit. It is the value of the entire asset, the amount of supply available, and the demand competing for it."

The co-founder added that "Bitcoin has a characteristic almost no other major asset possesses."

He added that its demand will keep growing and that its supply cannot respond; meanwhile, he noted that "gold miners can mine more gold" and "developers can build more real estate."

How Much Would Bitcoin Need to Grow to Reach $5M?

Bitcoin was trading at approximately $77,800 at the time of writing, with a market capitalization of $1.56 trillion and around 20.07 million BTC in circulation, according to CoinMarketCap.

Reaching $5 million would require:

• A price increase of approximately 6,325%.

• A rise of around 64 times from current levels.

• A market capitalization of approximately $100.35 trillion.

• A fully diluted valuation of $105 trillion based on Bitcoin's 21 million maximum supply.

The precise market capitalization would depend on when Bitcoin reached the target, as additional coins will continue entering circulation.

Even the lower $100.35 trillion figure would dwarf the US stock market's largest individual exchanges.

The World Federation of Exchanges valued Nasdaq-US-listed companies at approximately $43.58 trillion in June.

BTC at $5 million would therefore be worth roughly 2.3 times the combined market capitalization of Nasdaq-listed companies—and around three times the latest reported value of companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

It would also represent close to 60% of the $167.8 trillion value of equities across all exchanges tracked by the World Federation of Exchanges.

Those comparisons demonstrate the overwhelming scale of the bullish prediction.

Top Picks for Bitcoin

The post Bitcoin to $5M a 'Near Certainty,' Says Crypto Author — Gary Cardone Slams Forecast as 'Stupid' appeared first on ccn.com.