Americans Stop Moving as Mortgage Lock-In Persists: Home Depot Sees 'No Sign' of Housing Turnaround

Daragh Thomas

Tue, September 1, 2026 at 4:37 PM GMT+3 3 min read

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The probability of changing residence over the next 12 months has fallen to a record-low 13.5%, according to data highlighted in Apollo's (NYSE:APO) latest U.S. housing outlook, as high mortgage rates keep homeowners locked into cheaper loans.

And prediction markets see little relief on the horizon.

Polymarket traders now put roughly a 56% chance on the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points at its Sep. 16 meeting, up from about 30% before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.

Half of America Has a Mortgage Worth Keeping

Roughly half of outstanding mortgages carry rates below 4%, and about two-thirds sit below 5%, according to Apollo. A new 30-year mortgage currently costs close to 6.7%.

For millions of homeowners, moving means surrendering a 3% mortgage for one closer to 7%.

Federal Reserve researchers previously estimated this lock-in effect explained 44% of the drop in mobility among mortgage borrowers between 2021 and 2022.

Existing-home sales ran at an annualized 4.06 million in July, roughly 1.2 million below the pre-pandemic average, while Redfin estimated the number of active U.S. homebuyers fell to a record-low 967,000, leaving sellers outnumbering buyers by nearly 500,000.

Home Depot Has Been Waiting Four Years

The housing freeze is a major overhang for Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD), since home sales typically trigger spending on paint, flooring, appliances and renovations.

Home Depot has remained resilient: Q2 sales rose 5.7% to $47.9 billion and adjusted earnings increased 5.1%. But customer transactions fell 1%, while management said housing affordability continues to weigh on larger discretionary projects.

CFO Richard McPhail said housing turnover has "never been lower as a percentage of the housing stock" and has stayed depressed for four years.

Home Depot sees "a little bit of life" when rates fall, McPhail said, but "just no sign of an inflection point at this moment."

The Rate Escape Hatch May Be Closing

Mortgage relief looks no closer in the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield, which heavily influences mortgage rates, has climbed to its highest level since Trump returned to office.

Lock-in isn't the whole story. Apollo's data show Americans were moving less long before rates surged, and renters are moving less too. But for homeowners sitting on 3% mortgages, the incentive to stay put is unusually powerful.

The conditions needed to break that lock may be moving further away. Polymarket traders increasingly expect the Fed to keep tightening, while economists have warned that efforts to push long-term Treasury yields lower "won't work", with Citi's Nathan Sheets calling the U.S. fiscal position "absolutely out of control."

For Home Depot, the housing recovery it has already spent four years waiting for may remain out of reach.

Image: Shutterstock

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This article Americans Stop Moving as Mortgage Lock-In Persists: Home Depot Sees 'No Sign' of Housing Turnaround originally appeared on Benzinga.com

Americans Stop Moving as Mortgage Lock-In Persists: Home Depot Sees 'No Sign' of Housing Turnaround

Half of America Has a Mortgage Worth Keeping

Home Depot Has Been Waiting Four Years

The Rate Escape Hatch May Be Closing

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