Analyst Says the Worst Month for Stocks Since 1950 Is Setting Up Wrong This Year

Omor Ibne Ehsan

Sat, August 29, 2026 at 9:19 PM GMT+3 5 min read

Quick Read

SPY is up 13% year-to-date and the VIX sits at 15, giving September a far stronger entry point than years that produced historic losses.
Detrick points to nearly 70% of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving average as evidence this advance is broad, not driven by a few megacaps.
The 10-year yield at 4.67%, near its 92nd percentile over the past year, threatens equity valuations regardless of breadth or any seasonal pattern.
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Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, argued on CNBC that the calendar looks worse than the market does. September carries a reputation as the ugliest month for the S&P 500 going back three-quarters of a century, but Detrick's point was that the reputation was earned mostly in years when the market limped into September. This year the market is not limping.

gopixa / iStock

That distinction matters because seasonality is often used as a reason to trim exposure without much thought given to the conditions underlying the statistic. A month is a container, shaped by whatever conditions the market carries into it. What tends to matter is what the market was already doing when it walked in the door.

The intro data supports Detrick's framing. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 5.47% over the trailing month and 12.82% year to date. Volatility is quiet, with the VIX at 14.51 on August 27, 2026, well inside the low-volatility zone. That is a very different starting point than the weak Augusts that preceded the historically bad Septembers.

What Detrick Actually Said About September

Detrick called out the seasonality directly on air. "September is the worst month on average, the worst since 1950, the worst the last ten years. Usually the bad Septembers historically are when you have a weak market coming into it. That's not the case right now."

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His breadth argument was the follow-up. "We're looking at one of the best Augusts we've had in a while. We have almost 70% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving average. There really is a lot of participation."

Detrick was pointing at how many stocks are above their 200-day moving average, a rolling average of the last 200 daily closes for each stock. A stock trading above that line is generally in a longer-term uptrend.

When the share of index members above that line runs near 70%, the advance is broad rather than carried by a handful of megacaps. Breadth like that historically shows up before strong months, not weak ones.

Earnings and the Backdrop

Matt Powers, managing partner, framed the fundamentals on the same broadcast. "Earnings are rock solid. You're looking at the strongest earnings growth we've had since the third quarter of 2021. Ten of 11 sectors grew earnings and almost all at double digits."

That reading matters because September selloffs in prior cycles often coincided with earnings revisions turning lower. Broad sector participation in profit growth is the opposite signal.

Consumer sentiment supports the demand side, though only partially. The University of Michigan index rebounded to 55.2 in July 2026, up sharply from June but still below the level the source describes as neutral. The trend has improved, though the absolute reading remains subdued.

Bilal Little, global ETF strategist, flagged the technical undercurrent. "Markets are waiting on Warsh. The second point that I'll point out is volume is actually really low right now."

Low August volume can amplify moves in either direction once traders return, so a calm market is not the same thing as a durable one, and participation can shift quickly when desks refill.

Where the Seasonal Skeptics Have a Point

The bond market is the caveat worth taking seriously. The 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.67% on August 27, 2026, near its period high and in the 92.4th percentile of readings over the last year.

Elevated long yields pressure equity multiples independently of any calendar effect. That is a fundamental risk that operates independently of the calendar.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole appearance was the macro event traders had circled. The federal funds upper bound has sat at 3.75% since December 11, 2025, and September rate-cut odds have moved with each speech.

If Warsh nudges the market toward no cut, the seasonality debate becomes a sideshow next to duration risk. Selling because of a calendar page is a shortcut, and shortcuts get expensive when rates are the real variable.

What to Watch Into September

Detrick's argument is worth taking on its own terms. Breadth is wide, earnings are broad, and volatility is contained, which is close to the opposite of the setup that produced the historically weak Septembers he referenced.

The fact that 10 of 11 sectors are growing earnings in double digits is the most durable piece of the case. Broad participation in profits is harder to reverse in four weeks than a sentiment reading is.

Yields are the counterweight. If the 10-year pushes back toward the period high of 4.75%, valuation-sensitive parts of the market will feel it regardless of breadth.

Bilal Little's broader point about AI is worth carrying forward as well. "You're seeing a broadening out of the AI trade. Enterprises are going to be able to manifest real returns, real value and extract from historically SaaS-based platforms." The suppliers powering that buildout, from electricity to networking, are the ones we profiled in a free report on seven AI infrastructure names that aren't chipmakers.

The takeaway for investors is that a statistic covering 1950 onward describes what tended to happen under certain conditions, and those conditions are largely absent right now.