Cmb.Tech (CMBT) Is Cashing Out At The Top Of A Boom

Cmb.Tech (CMBT) Is Cashing Out At The Top Of A Boom

Fri, August 28, 2026 at 4:57 PM GMT+3 4 min read

• CMBT +0.05%
• CMBT +0.05%

On August 27, Cmb.Tech NV (NYSE:CMBT) posted a $364.4 million net profit for the second quarter, built on shipping rates that management called historic and a run of well-timed asset sales. Revenue topped $700 million, and EBITDA came in at $552 million. The company is also selling off older ships while prices for secondhand tankers sit above anything seen in the past decade.

A Fleet Selling Into Strength

Cmb.Tech booked a $127 million gain in the quarter from selling two VLCCs and one Suezmax, and it expects another $100 million gain in the third quarter and $130 million in the fourth from further sales. Management says secondhand VLCC and Suezmax values are running above their 10-year maximums, which is why older tonnage is going out the door now rather than later. The dry bulk side is humming too, with Newcastlemaxes earning $46,000 a day and Capesizes near $40,000 in the quarter. Growth in African iron ore exports, led by Simandou in Guinea, is expected to average 11% and could add 7% to Capesize ton miles as cheaper, high-grade ore displaces shorter-haul supply.

The fleet backing all this is young, averaging under six years old, and the $3.3 billion contract backlog gives revenue visibility years out. Offshore wind vessel unit Windcat is also contributing, with CSOV rates at $64,000 in the quarter and two-thirds of third quarter days already booked at $50,000. Management projects 2027 operational cash flow of $700 million to $1 billion once the current newbuilding program winds down, with unfunded capital commitments dropping to a range of $375 million to $390 million by year-end.

A Wall Of New Ships Coming

The company's own numbers point to trouble ahead in tankers. The order book for VLCCs and Suezmaxes has climbed above 30% of the existing fleet, and CEO Alexander Saverys flagged it directly, saying "what worries us a bit more is the order book to fleet." That wave of deliveries lands mostly in 2027 and 2028, just as global seaborne crude flows have already cooled, falling from 31 million barrels a day in January 2026 to 22.3 million by June, with China alone absorbing 4.3 million barrels a day of that drop by leaning on its own stockpiles instead of importing. Container and chemical tanker markets carry similar order book concerns even though both have outperformed expectations recently, and Cmb.Tech has kept its exposure there mostly under long-term contracts rather than the spot market.

Fund Buying Meets Cheap Multiple

Hedge fund ownership of Cmb.Tech rose to 29 funds from 24 last quarter, a sign institutional interest is building even as the stock trades at a forward P/E of just 16.34, as of August 27. Short interest sits at a low 0.96% of float, showing little organized skepticism in the name right now. That combination suggests that the market hasn't fully priced in either the earnings power on display this quarter or the supply risk building in tankers.

Betting On Cycles That Cut Both Ways

Cmb.Tech is harvesting gains from a shipping market at a cyclical peak while quietly funding its next few years of growth with the proceeds. The dry bulk and offshore wind stories look durable, backed by real demand shifts like Simandou and a genuinely young fleet. The tanker order book is the clearest threat, and its impact depends on whether oil demand and Chinese buying patterns normalize before that wave of new ships hits the water in 2027 and 2028. For the bulls, Africa's iron ore growth and offshore wind demand need to keep outpacing new vessel supply. For the bears, the tanker glut needs to arrive on schedule.

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