Kalshi Teams With The Weather Company, Expects $1.1B Weather Trading Volume in 2026
Thu, August 27, 2026 at 7:12 PM GMT+3 3 min read
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Kalshi is partnering with The Weather Company, operator of Weather.com and The Weather Channel app, to expand a weather trading business it expects to reach $1.1 billion in volume this year.
The Weather Company will supply the meteorological data used to verify contract outcomes, and the two firms plan to explore new markets around events such as ski conditions and marathon weather. Kalshi's probabilities will also appear across Weather Company platforms.
Kalshi's weather markets generated $564 million in trading volume through July, the Wall Street Journal reported, already surpassing the platform's full-year 2025 total. Weather and climate volume is up roughly 500% year over year.
That doesn't mean commercial hedging has taken over. But the market is starting to acquire the ingredients of a genuine risk-management tool: trusted settlement data, institutional-scale execution and businesses experimenting with contracts as hedges.
A Bet the Buyer Hopes to Lose
Houston risk-management startup Discrete recently executed what the Houston Chronicle reports was Kalshi's first privately negotiated weather-based block trade, buying a position that pays $25,000 if Houston reaches 103°F in August.
Discrete is developing hedging tools for energy retailers and other businesses exposed to extreme heat. In Texas, a heatwave can push electricity demand and wholesale power prices sharply higher, squeezing companies that still have to supply customers.
The Kalshi contract is designed to pay when that risk materializes. If Houston hits 103°F, the payout can offset some of the higher costs. If it doesn't, the hedge expires worthless.
Discrete founder Harp Singh told the Chronicle that traditional insurance structures can take weeks to arrange, while the Kalshi trade was put together in a matter of days.
Wall Street Is Building the Plumbing
The infrastructure for more trades like it is already being built. Cantor Fitzgerald launched institutional block trading on Kalshi on Aug. 19, with Susquehanna Predictions supplying institutional-scale pricing and liquidity.
Cantor says block trades let institutions deal in size away from Kalshi's central order book. Susquehanna has said it sees large institutional risk transfer as the next major growth area for prediction markets.
None of this means Kalshi invented weather hedging. Weather derivatives have traded for decades at venues such as CME Group (NASDAQ:CME), and insurers aren't going anywhere.
What is new is accessibility: packaging specialized weather risk into contracts as simple as "Will Houston hit 103°F?" If the model holds, weather could give Kalshi's fast-growing markets something particularly valuable: a straightforward commercial use case beyond speculation.
Image: Shutterstock
Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
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This article Kalshi Teams With The Weather Company, Expects $1.1B Weather Trading Volume in 2026 originally appeared on Benzinga.com
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