Tahmin piyasası yatırımcıları, bir Nvidia kazanç kaçırma ihtimalini ekarte ediyor

Prediction market traders all but rule out an Nvidia earnings miss

Wed, August 26, 2026 at 1:36 PM GMT+3 2 min read

• NVDA +2.19%
• POLA.PVT

Traders on Polymarket, an online exchange where users bet on the outcome of real-world events, put a 97% chance on Nvidia beating Wall Street's profit forecast when the chipmaker reports after the US close on Wednesday.

The contract resolves on whether adjusted earnings exceed $2.08 a share, and has held above 95% for most of the past fortnight on volume of just over $32,000.

That confidence sits at odds with the shares' recent behaviour. Nvidia snapped a seven-day losing streak on Tuesday, closing 2.19% higher, having suffered its longest run of consecutive declines since 2022.

The world's most valuable company is worth roughly $5.2 trillion, leaving the wider market heavily exposed to a single results announcement.

Analysts polled ahead of the print expect revenue of around $92 billion for the quarter ended 26 July, against management guidance of $91 billion give or take 2%.

That would represent growth of about 97% on the $46.7 billion recorded a year earlier, with the data centre division accounting for close to $86 billion of the total.

The guidance assumes no data centre compute revenue from China, where export restrictions continue to bite.

Few in the market doubt Nvidia will clear the bar for the quarter just gone. The argument is over the next one.

Consensus for the third quarter sits near $104 billion, and several banks including Jefferies and UBS have pencilled in figures above $108 billion.

Investors will look for evidence that Vera Rubin, Nvidia's next accelerator platform, is shipping on schedule, and that customers are not deferring purchases of the current Blackwell chips while they wait.

Chip stocks fell sharply in July on concerns that hyperscale cloud operators may struggle to earn a return on their AI infrastructure spending, and have since failed to recover the ground.

A modest beat paired with cautious guidance would do more damage than a narrow miss with a confident outlook.