Week ahead: Nvidia, inflation and Jackson Hole set the tone for Wall Street

Week ahead: Nvidia, inflation and Jackson Hole set the tone for Wall Street

Proactive

Mon, August 24, 2026 at 5:11 PM GMT+3 4 min read

• NVDA +2.19%
• CL=F -1.64%

Wall Street heads into one of the biggest weeks of the late summer, with Nvidia earnings, a key inflation reading and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole appearance all likely to shape the outlook for stocks and bonds heading into September.

The timing could hardly be more important. Rising Treasury yields rattled markets last week, while concerns over US debt, elevated oil prices and renewed tariff tensions added to an already volatile backdrop.

The biggest corporate event comes Wednesday after the closing bell, when Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) reports earnings.

The chipmaker remains at the heart of the AI trade, making its results a major test of whether the enormous spending boom around artificial intelligence can continue. Investors will be watching for updates on AI infrastructure demand, product ramp timing, China exposure and Nvidia's growing involvement in financing AI projects.

Options traders are pricing in a roughly 6% move in Nvidia shares following the report.

Expectations remain high, with Nvidia forecast to report more than $92 billion in quarterly revenue. But the market will be looking beyond the headline number for clues about how long the AI investment cycle can continue.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB described Nvidia as "the central bank of the tech world," arguing that its influence now extends well beyond chipmaking.

"This means that their results are central for financial markets," Brooks said. "Nvidia is now so powerful and cash-rich that it is almost like a central bank to the tech industry."

The results could reverberate across the broader semiconductor sector, with Marvell Technology, Micron, Arm Holdings and Advanced Micro Devices among the stocks closely tied to Nvidia's earnings reaction.

Before Nvidia takes the spotlight, investors will get an important update on inflation.

The core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is due Wednesday morning. The report carries added significance after the Fed held rates steady last month despite three policymakers dissenting in favour of a hike.

Deutsche Bank said the reading will be heavily scrutinized given the increasingly divided debate over inflation and policy.

"Market participants will heavily scrutinize Wednesday's core PCE print," the bank said, adding that it is tracking a 0.18% monthly increase, equivalent to annual growth of around 3.22%.

A softer reading could reduce expectations for a September rate hike, while a stronger number would reinforce concerns that inflation remains stubbornly high.

Investors will also get fresh data on personal income and spending, durable goods orders and second-quarter GDP, providing a broader picture of economic momentum heading into the third quarter.

Attention then shifts to Jackson Hole, where Warsh is scheduled to speak Friday.

Markets will be listening closely for his views on inflation, interest rates and the recent turmoil in Treasury markets. Warsh has moved away from detailed forward guidance, making his approach harder for investors to predict.

Deutsche Bank believes the Fed chair may use the speech to outline his broader vision for the central bank rather than offer specific policy signals.

"Warsh's Jackson Hole speech provides a timely opportunity for the Fed's new leader to clarify his vision for the central bank," the bank said.

However, Deutsche Bank added that, given Warsh's preference for providing limited information about the policy outlook, "his comments will most likely skew" toward broader themes.

That uncertainty comes as the bond market remains under pressure. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to around 5.27% last week despite increased Treasury buybacks.

Brooks said investors are increasingly focused on inflation, mounting federal debt and the enormous borrowing needed to fund the AI buildout.

"This is set to be a pivotal week for asset markets, since there is still a chance the US Treasury sell off becomes a full-blown crisis," she warned.

Other risks are also building. Renewed US-Canada trade tensions have brought tariffs back into focus, while elevated oil prices remain another concern for investors. Brent crude ended last week above $94 per barrel as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed.

Brooks warned that persistently high oil prices could keep upward pressure on inflation, interest rates and Treasury yields heading into the autumn.

Meanwhile, investors have increasingly looked beyond traditional US assets. Gold, silver and platinum all posted strong gains last week, while Bitcoin surged 22% to above $77,000.

All in all, investors should expect a big week with Nvidia and Jackson Hole likely to dominate investor attention.

Add in core PCE, GDP data, oil prices, tariff tensions and a fragile bond market, and Wall Street is heading into the final stretch of August with little room for complacency.