Nvidia Isn’t the Only Way to Win the AI Chip Race

Vandita Jadeja

Mon, August 24, 2026 at 8:00 PM GMT+3 4 min read

Quick Read

MRVL rates a BUY with a $279 price target and 90% confidence, after a $12.2B Google warrant confirmed its custom-silicon leadership position.
MRVL's 58x forward P/E looks reasonable next to NVDA's premium franchise and AVGO's rapid AI growth, given its projected 40% FY27 revenue expansion.
Management raised FY28 revenue guidance to $16.5B, fueling a bull case of $353, but hyperscalers moving silicon in-house could trigger the $212 bear case.
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Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) has quietly become one of the most levered plays on AI infrastructure outside of NVIDIA, and after a 233.59% one-year run, shareholders want to know if there is still room to work.

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Marvell is $279.18, implying 17.78% upside from a current price of $237.04. We rate the stock a buy with 90% confidence, anchored on accelerating data center revenue and a raised fiscal 2028 outlook.

An infographic from 24/7 Wall St. titled 'Marvell Technology (MRVL) • 12-Month Price Prediction'. The top section, 'THE CALL', displays a current price of $237.04, an arrow pointing to a target price of $279.18, indicating a +17.78% upside. A green button says 'BUY'. It notes a 90% Confidence Level and states the prediction is anchored on accelerating data center revenue and raised FY28 outlook. Below, 'HOW WE GOT THERE' outlines a Weighted Methodology with Trailing P/E-Based: $237.04, Forward P/E-Based: $251.21, Analyst Consensus: $263.94, and a Weighted Base Price: $252.20, shown with horizontal bars. 'OUR ADJUSTMENTS' details a '1.107 247Factor' based on Strong Technology Sector Momentum and 88% Bullish Analyst Sentiment, leading to a Final Price Target of $279.18. A green section, 'BULL CASE: What Could Go Right', lists FY28 Revenue Outlook Raised to $16.5B, Interconnect Growth >70% in FY27, and a Bull Case Price Target: $353.06. A red section, 'BEAR CASE: What Could Go Wrong', lists Data Center Concentration (76%), Hyperscaler In-House Silicon Risk, and a Bear Case Price Target: $211.98. The bottom section, 'THE BOTTOM LINE', reiterates a 'BUY RECOMMENDATION' with a '$279.18 TARGET (+17.78%)' and states the thesis is strengthened by raised FY28 outlook and accelerating AI demand. The infographic has a dark blue/grey background with green and red accent sections.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

How Marvell Got Here: A Google Warrant and a $12.2B Signal

Marvell is up 179.34% year to date and 12.35% over the past month, though the stock sits 20% below its 52-week high of $329.80. Recent news flow has been decisive. On August 19, Marvell rose 13% on a $12.2 billion Google warrant disclosure, reinforcing the custom-silicon narrative.

Q1 FY27 revenue landed at $2.418 billion, up 27.57% year over year, with data center now 76% of total revenue. CEO Matt Murphy told investors: "We are seeing exceptional AI-related bookings."

MRVL Price Target — 24/7 Wall St.

Why Bulls See a Breakout Ahead

Management raised fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to nearly $11.5 billion and fiscal 2028 to approximately $16.5 billion, a $1.5 billion raise versus prior.

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Interconnect revenue is now expected to grow more than 70% in fiscal 2027, scale-out switch revenue should exceed $600 million, and Murphy reaffirmed a target of over $10 billion in custom silicon revenue in fiscal 2029.

Our bull-case scenario points to $353.06, roughly 48.94% upside, if scale-up optics ramp materially in FY28. Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Marvell to $310 from $240 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares.

MRVL Price Scenario — 24/7 Wall St.

What Could Go Wrong

Concentration is real. Data center is 76% of the mix, hyperscalers dominate the customer base, and Q1 net income fell sharply due to a contingent consideration charge tied to Celestial AI. Bulls will note that charge is non-cash and one-time, and non-GAAP EPS still beat at $0.80.

Still, if hyperscalers accelerate their own in-house silicon or if trade restrictions tighten, our bear case implies $211.98, a 10.57% drawdown. Retail sentiment has cooled toward neutral in recent Reddit activity.

MRVL Analyst Ratings — 24/7 Wall St.

How Marvell Compares to Broadcom and NVIDIA

Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) is the most direct comp for custom AI silicon and networking. Broadcom has posted rapid AI semiconductor growth in its most recent quarter. That growth profile makes MRVL's projected FY27 growth of approximately 40% look credible rather than aggressive.

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) trades at a premium multiple with a much larger data center revenue base. Marvell's forward P/E of 58x looks rich versus NVIDIA's compute franchise but reasonable given MRVL's smaller scale and steeper acceleration curve.

The peer set supports our $279.18 target as a balanced valuation.

Marvell Price Prediction 2026-2030

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $279.18 with 90% confidence supports a buy. The scale tips on management's raised FY28 outlook of $16.5 billion and the Google warrant validating custom-silicon leadership.

The thesis strengthens if scale-up optics revenue tracks toward the $300 million FY28 outlook. The thesis weakens if a top hyperscaler shifts a custom XPU program in-house.

These projections assume Marvell continues executing on custom silicon and interconnect. Significant upside could result from scale-up switching, which management said is not materially included in the current $16.5 billion FY28 outlook.