Trump milyonlarca dolarlık bir tahvil bahsi yaptı ve Fed Başkanı Kevin Warsh sonucu şekillendirebilir. Yatırımcıların öğrenebilecekleri

Trump made a multimillion-dollar bond bet — and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could shape the outcome. What investors can learn

Robyn Tellefsen

Sun, August 23, 2026 at 4:00 PM GMT+3 6 min read

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President Donald Trump has been buying corporate and municipal bonds since returning to the White House in 2025 — and he hasn't exactly slowed down.

In March alone, Trump made 175 financial transactions and bought at least $51 million in bonds, according to financial disclosures filed with the Office of Government Ethics. Most were municipal bonds issued by states, counties, school districts and other public entities (1).

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That adds to a much larger wave of bond purchases during Trump's second term. Earlier filings put the potential value of one batch of purchases at more than $337 million, although the disclosures report values in broad ranges rather than exact amounts (2).

Trump's March purchases also spanned a wide range of corporate bonds, including those tied to Nvidia, Broadcom, Meta, Microsoft, Boeing, Constellation Energy, Occidental Petroleum and major Wall Street banks, along with U.S. Treasuries (1).

The purchases, while not illegal, have raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest. The White House has said the investments are managed by independent third-party financial institutions, according to Reuters (3).

But there's another reason investors are paying attention to bonds right now — the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department are both playing an increasingly important role in the direction of the bond market.

So, should you follow Trump into bonds? First, it may be worth understanding what's happening in fixed income — and why it could matter for your portfolio.

A Federal Reserve 'regime change'

Trump's pick for Federal Reserve chair, financier Kevin Warsh, took over from former chair Jerome Powell in May. And while Warsh was handpicked by Trump, Warsh said he didn't make any promises to get the job.

"The president never once asked me to commit to any particular interest rate decision, period," Warsh said when being questioned by the Senate Banking Committee. "Nor would I ever agree to do so if he had" (4).

Warsh is considered hawkish, which is especially relevant with several Fed officials warning that another rate hike could be needed if inflation doesn't cool (5).

The Fed held its benchmark interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75% in July, but three officials wanted to raise rates by a quarter point. Several others said a hike could be needed if inflation stays above the Fed's 2% target (6).

Warsh has also become more open to cutting rates under specific conditions, like an AI boom that increases productivity.

Warsh has also said an AI-driven productivity boom could create room for lower rates. A longtime critic of the Fed's large balance sheet, he has called for "regime change" at the central bank, including changes to how it measures inflation (6).

For bond investors, that leaves the direction of interest rates — and bond prices — far from certain.

How this could impact the bond market

Bond investors have been navigating an unusual environment. Long-term borrowing costs have remained elevated even as the Fed has held its benchmark rate steady, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching 5.34% at one point — its highest level since 2007 (7).

The Treasury Department has also taken steps that could influence the market. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to double buybacks of 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, and has said the Treasury could increase those purchases further (8).

Those moves matter because bond prices and yields generally move in opposite directions. When yields fall, existing bonds that pay higher rates can become more valuable. When yields rise, newly issued bonds may offer more attractive returns, putting pressure on the value of existing bonds.

But Treasury buybacks aren't the same as Fed rate cuts. The Treasury is managing government debt, while the Fed is managing monetary policy. Inflation, economic growth and the Fed's decisions can therefore continue to push yields — and bond prices — in either direction.

That makes Trump's bond purchases less straightforward than simply betting that rates will fall. If yields decline, some existing bonds could appreciate. But if inflation remains stubborn and rates stay elevated or rise, bond prices could face pressure.

Despite the uncertainty, bonds can still play a role in a diversified portfolio by providing regular income and potentially helping offset stock market volatility. But persistent inflation or higher interest rates can weigh on bond prices, while stocks have historically offered stronger long-term returns.

How to invest when the outlook is uncertain

While some may perceive this uncertainty as a risk, others could see it as an opportunity. It depends on how many years you have left to invest before retirement, as well as your comfort level with market fluctuations.

Understanding these factors can help you make investment choices that make the most sense for your situation.

Here are three practical ways to keep your money on track in an uncertain market.

Review your strategy with an advisor

With interest rates, inflation and bond yields all capable of changing the outlook for different investments, deciding how much of your portfolio belongs in stocks, bonds or other assets can get complicated. That can be especially true as you approach retirement, when protecting what you've accumulated may become just as important as pursuing growth.

For investors with portfolios of $250,000 or more, financial decisions often become increasingly nuanced.

Managing withdrawals, minimizing tax exposure, and ensuring long-term sustainability often requires greater coordination and strategic planning.

In these cases, working with a financial advisor can help reduce costly mistakes.

If you have a portfolio of $250,000 or more, platforms like WiserAdvisor can connect you with vetted professionals who specialize in this kind of planning.

All you have to do is answer a few questions about your savings, retirement timeline and overall investment portfolio.

From there, WiserAdvisor reviews its network to match you — for free — with up to three vetted, reputable advisors aligned with your specific needs.

You can then schedule no-obligation consultations with your matches to determine who is the best fit for your long-term goals.

WiserAdvisor is a matching service and does not provide financial advice directly. All matched advisors are third parties, and specific financial results are not guaranteed.

Choose your investments wisely

Bonds may be getting attention from Trump and other investors, but they're only one part of a broader portfolio. For investors who still have time to pursue long-term growth, stocks can play an important role, although deciding which companies are worth investing in can require considerably more research.

Moby offers expert research and recommendations to help you identify strong, long-term investments backed by advice from former hedge fund analysts.

In four years, and across almost 400 stock picks, their recommendations have beaten the S&P 500 by almost 12% on average. They also offer a 30-day money-back guarantee.

Moby's team spends hundreds of hours sifting through financial news and data to provide you with stock and crypto reports delivered straight to you. Their research keeps you up-to-the-minute on market shifts, and can help you reduce the guesswork behind choosing stocks and ETFs.

Plus, their reports are easy to understand for beginners, so you can become a smarter investor in just five minutes.

Build your own investment portfolio

Research can help you decide where you want to invest, but you still need a way to put those decisions into action. Investors who prefer to manage their own portfolios can choose their mix of stocks, ETFs and other investments based on their goals and tolerance for risk.

SoFi's easy-to-use DIY investing platform lets youbuy stocks, ETFs and more with no commission fees and no account minimums.

SoFi is designed for both beginners and seasoned investors, with real-time investing news, curated content and the data you need to make smart decisions about the stocks that matter most to you.

Plus, for a limited time you can get up to $1,000 in stock when you fund a new account.

Invest in real estate without becoming a landlord

Stocks and bonds don't have to make up your entire portfolio. Investors looking to diversify further may consider other asset classes, including real estate, whose returns aren't driven by exactly the same factors affecting stocks and fixed-income investments.

You can tap into this market by investing in shares of vacation homes or rental properties through Arrived.

Backed by world-class investors, including Jeff Bezos, Arrived allows you to invest in shares of vacation and rental properties, earning a passive income stream without the extra work that comes with being a landlord of your own rental property.

To get started, simply browse through their selection of vetted properties, each picked for their potential appreciation and income generation. Once you choose a property, you can start investing with as little as $100.

Once you're an investor with Arrived, you'll gain access to their newly launched quarterly secondary market, where investors can buy and sell shares of individual rental and vacation rental properties directly on the platform.

This allows you to buy into properties you may have missed at the initial offering or sell shares before a property reaches the end of its hold period.

With access to more than 400 properties in 60 cities, this new way to trade real estate opens up flexibility and opportunities to gain access to more properties every quarter.

— With files from Vawn Himmelsbach