One of Exxon's Biggest Oil Fields Is Running Out of Room to Grow. Here's Why That's Not a Crisis.
Matt DiLallo, The Motley Fool
Sun, August 23, 2026 at 7:05 PM GMT+3 4 min read
ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) recently warned Kazakhstan that the Central Asian nation's largest oil field, Tengiz, will hit its production peak next year. Worse yet, output from the field will begin to decline. Exxon estimates it will fall nearly 40% by 2035 to around 500,000 barrels per day (bpd). That also has implications for Chevron, as it helped develop the field through its 50% interest in the Tengizchevroil (TCO) partnership.
However, while Tengiz is about to plateau and decline, that's not a crisis for ExxonMobil. Here's why.
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There's more in the tank in Kazakhstan
Even though output at Tengiz is about to peak and start declining, Exxon has another opportunity in Kazakhstan: Kashagan. The giant offshore field in the Caspian Sea is operated by a partnership that includes Exxon, Shell, TotalEnergies, and others. Exxon sees the potential for an $80 billion joint investment to develop the western part of the field. This expansion could produce up to 600,000 bpd.
However, the field is part of a long-running dispute between Kazakhstan and the operating consortium. Kazakhstan levied a $5 billion environmental fine that the field's operator hasn't paid. Additionally, the government says the partners owe it $150 billion for lost revenue due to development delays, a claim currently before international arbitration. Exxon and its partners won't invest the capital needed to boost production in this field until they resolve the dispute with the government.
Exxon has plenty more growth elsewhere
Kashagan is far from Exxon's only potential growth driver. The oil giant is currently investing $100 billion through 2030 on major capital projects. These investments will grow its oil and gas production from 4.7 million bpd last year to 5.5 million bpd by 2035. Major growth drivers include Guyana, LNG, and the Permian Basin.
The company expects to double its production in the Permian Basin alone by 2030 to about 2.5 million bpd. It recently signed new 20-year, fee-based integrated midstream agreements with Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP) to support its growth in the Permian in the coming years. Targa will build three new natural gas processing plants to support Exxon's development in the region and is evaluating five additional plants. It's also building a new 70-mile gas pipeline to support Exxon's growth. Targa plans to start operations on this new infrastructure by the first half of 2028.
Meanwhile, Exxon recently awarded $1.1 billion in pre-investment contracts for equipment for the Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique. The company is on track to make a Final Investment Decision on the potential $30 billion project by the end of this year. Exxon could also approve an LNG project in Papua New Guinea by the end of this year. These projects will help drive growth beyond 2030.
Exxon's growth engine isn't running low on fuel
While production at one of Exxon's major oil fields is about to peak and start declining, that's not a crisis for the oil giant. It has another potential major project in Kazakhstan in the pipeline. On top of that, it has visible growth in the Permian, two more LNG projects in the works, and many other opportunities worldwide. While there are risks associated with both Kashagan and Rovuma (the latter has been delayed by regional violence since 2021), Exxon's diversified growth pipeline helps mitigate these risks. Exxon's multiple long-term growth drivers make it one of the top oil stocks to buy.
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Matt DiLallo has positions in Chevron. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chevron. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
One of Exxon's Biggest Oil Fields Is Running Out of Room to Grow. Here's Why That's Not a Crisis. was originally published by The Motley Fool
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