Prediction: Nvidia Stock Will Go Parabolic After Aug. 26. Here Are 2.3 Trillion Reasons Why
Harsh Chauhan, The Motley Fool
Fri, August 21, 2026 at 12:58 PM GMT+3 6 min read
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is all set to release its fiscal 2027 second-quarter results (for the three months ended July 26) after the market closes on Aug. 26.
The market will be eagerly awaiting the artificial intelligence (AI) bellwether's numbers and outlook, as they will provide clarity about the state of the AI market. It is worth noting that Nvidia stock has underperformed the broader semiconductor sector this year. The PHLX Semiconductor Sector index's 63% gains in 2026 are way ahead of the 21% jump in Nvidia's stock price this year.
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However, a closer look at the earnings reports of the major U.S. hyperscalers suggests that this semiconductor stock could get a huge shot in the arm when it releases its quarterly report on Aug. 26.
Image source: Nvidia.
A $2.3 trillion revenue backlog points toward greater demand for Nvidia's chips
There is incredible demand for AI services, and that's evident from the massive revenue backlogs that major hyperscalers in the U.S. are sitting on. Bank of America notes that the top four cloud service providers in the U.S. ended the second quarter with an enormous backlog of $2.3 trillion. Analyst Vivek Arya points out that companies such as Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon, and Alphabet's Google need to invest aggressively in cloud computing capacity to meet their backlogs.
Oracle, for instance, estimates that it can convert only 12% of its backlog into revenue over the next year, while Microsoft expects to recognize 30% of the backlog as revenue over the same period. As a result, Arya expects that hyperscalers will continue investing more money in computing capacity. Moreover, neocloud companies, such as CoreWeave and Nebius, along with pure-play AI service providers, are on track to significantly expand their capacities.
Not surprisingly, Nvidia's peer, Advanced Micro Devices, noted on its recent earnings call that the total addressable market (TAM) for AI compute is poised to grow at a 40% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the long run, generating nearly $2 trillion in revenue by 2030. What's more, AMD now expects to clock faster growth than its earlier long-term revenue growth estimate of 35%.
Given that Nvidia is a much bigger player than AMD, with an estimated 80% to 90% share of the AI accelerator market, it is poised to win big from the lucrative opportunity over here. The increased backlogs of hyperscalers should ideally boost the demand for Nvidia's AI chips, paving the way for the company to deliver stronger-than-expected numbers and guidance.
Also, AMD noted on the earnings call that it now expects the server CPU market to grow by more than 50% annually through 2030, generating $220 billion in annual revenue.
That's well above the $60 billion estimate for the server CPU market that AMD delivered in November 2025. Nvidia has already set its sights on this massive market, noting that it can sell $20 billion worth of stand-alone server CPUs this year. Nvidia previously sold its server CPUs as part of rack-scale systems, and its decision to sell these chips on a stand-alone basis has unlocked a solid growth opportunity.
Nvidia will reportedly start selling its Vera server CPUs this month. This product could play a central role in helping the company deliver better-than-expected results and guidance, as server CPUs are now finding traction in AI data centers to support agentic AI and inference workloads.
Stronger-than-expected results and guidance should give the stock a big boost
Analysts are expecting a 97% year-over-year increase in Nvidia's revenue in fiscal Q2 to almost $92 billion, along with a similar increase in earnings per share to $2.08. The top-line estimate is slightly higher than the midpoint of Nvidia's guidance of $91 billion. It is also worth noting that Nvidia anticipates its non-GAAP gross margin to increase to 75% for fiscal Q2 from 72.7% in the year-ago period.
The margin increase that Nvidia has guided for suggests that its bottom-line growth could exceed Wall Street's expectations. Also, analysts are expecting Nvidia to guide for $2.35 in earnings per share for the current quarter, which would be an 80% increase from the year-ago quarter. There is a solid probability that Nvidia will call for a stronger earnings increase, as it is poised to start shipping its Vera Rubin processors in the second half of 2026.
The company has already noted that it has an order book worth a whopping $1 trillion for 2026 and 2027. For comparison, the company has generated $253 billion in revenue for the trailing twelve months. So, there is a chance that analysts could be underestimating Nvidia's growth potential, which is why a positive earnings surprise on Aug. 26 could send the stock soaring.
Moreover, Nvidia is trading at an attractive 25 times forward earnings, which is slightly lower than the tech-laden Nasdaq-100 index's forward earnings multiple of 26. So, investors are getting a solid deal on this AI stock right now when its outstanding earnings growth is considered. That's why it seems like a good idea to buy shares of Nvidia before its upcoming earnings report, as solid results and guidance could send the stock on a parabolic run.
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Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Harsh Chauhan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Oracle. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Prediction: Nvidia Stock Will Go Parabolic After Aug. 26. Here Are 2.3 Trillion Reasons Why was originally published by The Motley Fool
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